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In this article, we develop a modern perspective on Akaike's Information Criterion and Mallows' Cp for model selection. Despite the diff erences in their respective motivation, they are equivalent in the special case of Gaussian linear…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
A general framework is that the estimators of a distribution are obtained by minimizing a function (the estimating function) and they are assessed through another function (the assessment function). The estimating and assessment functions…
Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…
In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…
Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…
Pairwise Choice Markov Chains (PCMC) have been recently introduced to overcome limitations of choice models based on traditional axioms unable to express empirical observations from modern behavior economics like context effects occurring…
Model selection is of fundamental importance to high dimensional modeling featured in many contemporary applications. Classical principles of model selection include the Kullback-Leibler divergence principle and the Bayesian principle,…
Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) can be viewed as non-linear regression models, where covariates enter the model through a combination of weighted summations and non-linear functions. Although these models have some similarities to the…
Information of interest can often only be extracted from data by model fitting. When the functional form of such a model can not be deduced from first principles, one has to make a choice between different possible models. A common approach…
This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…
Prior design is one of the most important problems in both statistics and machine learning. The cross validation (CV) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are predictive measures of the Bayesian estimation, however, it has…
We study inference with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and high-quality predictions from an external model. We link prediction-powered inference with empirical likelihood by stacking supervised estimating equations based…
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve…
Gaussian graphical models can capture complex dependency structures among variables. For such models, Bayesian inference is attractive as it provides principled ways to incorporate prior information and to quantify uncertainty through the…
The Bayesian information criterion (BIC), defined as the observed data log likelihood minus a penalty term based on the sample size $N$, is a popular model selection criterion for factor analysis with complete data. This definition has also…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a classic technique for multi-view data analysis. To overcome the deficiency of linear correlation in practical multi-view learning tasks, various CCA variants were proposed to capture nonlinear…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…