Related papers: Intergenerational risk sharing in a Defined Contri…
This paper bridges social security design and general equilibrium theory to conceive optimally balanced pay-as-you-go systems. The design is based on the backward calculation algorithm from Dognini (2025), which is used to find optimal…
We mathematically demonstrate how and what it means for two collective pension funds to mutually insure one another against systematic longevity risk. The key equation that facilitates the exchange of insurance is a market clearing…
We extend the Annually Recalculated Virtual Annuity (ARVA) spending rule for retirement savings decumulation to include a cap and a floor on withdrawals. With a minimum withdrawal constraint, the ARVA strategy runs the risk of depleting the…
Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…
In a collectivised pension fund, investors agree that any money remaining in the fund when they die can be shared among the survivors. We give a numerical algorithm to compute the optimal investment-consumption strategy for an infinite…
This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for assessing and improving the performance of a pension fund management scheme. This framework is modular and allows the definition of customized performance metrics that are used to assess…
For highly automated driving above SAE level~3, behavior generation algorithms must reliably consider the inherent uncertainties of the traffic environment, e.g. arising from the variety of human driving styles. Such uncertainties can…
Microgrids incorporate distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads, which can provide energy and reserve services for the main grid. However, due to uncertain renewable generations such as solar power, microgrids might…
Intelligent reflecting surfaces (IRSs) are emerging as promising enablers for the next generation of wireless communication systems, because of their ability to customize favorable radio propagation environments. However, with the…
This paper presents a novel framework for decentralized annuities, aiming to address the limitations of traditional pension systems such as defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) plans, while providing lifetime financial…
We study actuarial fairness in China's notional defined contribution (NDC) pension system when mortality differs across income groups. Under current rules, individual account balances are converted into monthly benefits using an official…
We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…
Public policies and medical interventions often involve dynamic treatment assignments, in which individuals receive a sequence of interventions over multiple stages. We study the statistical learning of optimal dynamic treatment regimes…
This paper examines optimal risk sharing for empirically realistic risk attitudes, providing results on Pareto optimality, competitive equilibria, utility frontiers, and the first and second theorems of welfare. Contrary to common…
This paper considers the optimal dividend payment problem in piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk models. The objective is to maximize the expected discounted dividend payout up to the time of ruin. We provide a comparative study…
We employ distribution regression (DR) to estimate the joint distribution of two outcome variables conditional on chosen covariates. While Bivariate Distribution Regression (BDR) is useful in a variety of settings, it is particularly…
This paper considers nonlinear regular-singular stochastic optimal control of large insurance company. The company controls the reinsurance rate and dividend payout process to maximize the expected present value of the dividend pay-outs…
Optimal reinsurance when Value at Risk and expected surplus is balanced through their ratio is studied, and it is demonstrated how results for risk-adjusted surplus can be utilized. Simplifications for large portfolios are derived, and this…
The community integrated energy system (CIES) is an essential energy internet carrier that has recently been the focus of much attention. A scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming is proposed for integrated demand response…
Consider a multi-agent network comprised of risk averse social sensors and a controller that jointly seek to estimate an unknown state of nature, given noisy measurements. The network of social sensors perform Bayesian social learning -…