Related papers: Fundamental limits for learning hidden Markov mode…
Learning-based approaches to verifying unknown Markov decision processes (MDPs) often employ uncertain MDPs. These models use, for example, confidence intervals to capture transition uncertainty and allow synthesis of policies that are…
We study parameterized MDPs (PMDPs) in which the key parameters of interest are unknown and must be learned using Bayesian inference. One key defining feature of such models is the presence of "uninformative" actions that provide no…
In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition…
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…
This paper explores unsupervised learning of parsing models along two directions. First, which models are identifiable from infinite data? We use a general technique for numerically checking identifiability based on the rank of a Jacobian…
We study large but finite neural networks that, in the thermodynamic limit, admit an exact low-dimensional mean-field description. We assume that the governing mean-field equations describing macroscopic quantities such as the mean firing…
Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…
Analysis of multivariate healthcare time series data is inherently challenging: irregular sampling, noisy and missing values, and heterogeneous patient groups with different dynamics violating exchangeability. In addition, interpretability…
We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw…
Since the early days of digital communication, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have now been routinely used in speech recognition, processing of natural languages, images, and in bioinformatics. An HMM $(X_i,Y_i)_{i\ge 1}$ assumes observations…
Epistemic uncertainty is often viewed as a reducible uncertainty that vanishes with increasing data. This perspective implicitly assumes parameter identifiability and equates epistemic uncertainty with predictive variability. In…
Scientists use mathematical modelling to understand and predict the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parameterised models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or…
Identifiability of parameters is an essential property for a statistical model to be useful in most settings. However, establishing parameter identifiability for Bayesian networks with hidden variables remains challenging. In the context of…
Machine learning (ML) methods are highly flexible, but their ability to approximate the true data-generating process is fundamentally constrained by finite samples. We characterize a universal lower bound, the Limits-to-Learning Gap (LLG),…
We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…
Machine learning (ML) and deep learning models are extensively used for parameter optimization and regression problems. However, not all inverse problems in ML are ``identifiable,'' indicating that model parameters may not be uniquely…
The Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCwM) algorithm, interpreted as a perturbed Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, provides an approach for approximate sampling when the target distribution is intractable. Assuming the unperturbed Markov…
We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…
This paper considers cluster detection in Block Markov Chains (BMCs). These Markov chains are characterized by a block structure in their transition matrix. More precisely, the $n$ possible states are divided into a finite number of $K$…