Related papers: Black Box Variational Bayesian Model Averaging

Variational inference is a powerful paradigm for approximate Bayesian inference with a number of appealing properties, including support for model learning and data subsampling. By contrast MCMC methods like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo do not…

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

Background: We proposed approximate Bayesian computation with single distribution selection (ABC-SD) for estimating mean and standard deviation from other reported summary statistics. The ABC-SD generates pseudo data from a single…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

For many cancer sites low-dose risks are not known and must be extrapolated from those observed in groups exposed at much higher levels of dose. Measurement error can substantially alter the dose-response shape and hence the extrapolated…

In many inverse problems such as 3D X-ray Computed Tomography (CT), the estimation of an unknown quantity, such as a volume or an image, can be greatly enhanced, compared to maximum-likelihood techniques, by incorporating a prior model on…

This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…

We consider the problem of measuring how much a system reveals about its secret inputs. We work under the black-box setting: we assume no prior knowledge of the system's internals, and we run the system for choices of secrets and measure…

Adversarial example detection is known to be an effective adversarial defense method. Black-box attack, which is a more realistic threat and has led to various black-box adversarial training-based defense methods, however, does not attract…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

This paper considers the problem of estimating the information leakage of a system in the black-box scenario. It is assumed that the system's internals are unknown to the learner, or anyway too complicated to analyze, and the only available…

Performance modeling typically relies on two antithetic methodologies: white box models, which exploit knowledge on system's internals and capture its dynamics using analytical approaches, and black box techniques, which infer relations…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case.…

Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is used to quantify and understand the life cycles of materials from production to end of use, which enables environmental, social and economic impacts and interventions. MFA is challenging as available data is…