Related papers: A simple model for predicting the hurricane radius…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…
Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
The influence of dust devils on the martian atmosphere depends on their capacity to loft dust, which depends on their wind profiles and footprint on the martian surface, i.e., on their radii, $R$. Previous work suggests the wind profile…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
A physical model is proposed for the estimation of the foam impact on the variation of the effective drag coefficient, C_d, with reference to the wind speed U10 in stormy and hurricane conditions. In the present model C_d is approximated by…
Emanuel's concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (E-PI) relates the maximum velocity $V_{\rm max}$ of tropical storms, assumed to be in gradient wind balance, to environmental parameters. Several studies suggested that the unbalanced flow…
This paper presents a modeling approach for probabilistic estimation of hurricane wind-induced damage to infrastructural assets. In our approach, we employ a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model for estimating spatially-varying…
[abridged] Radiation pressure on dust grains may be an important mechanism in driving winds in a wide variety of astrophysical systems. However, the efficiency of the coupling between the radiation field and the dusty gas is poorly…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding and to model the processes controlling the amplitude of the wind of Rayleigh-Benard convection. We analyze results from direct simulation of an L/H = 4 aspect-ratio domain with…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
The concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) is widely used in tropical cyclone research to estimate the minimum central pressure and the maximum velocity of tropical storms from environmental parameters. The MPI pressure derives from…
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…