Related papers: Effect of time-dependent infectiousness on epidemi…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The…
Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…
In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…
Changs in individual behavior often entangles with the dynamic interaction of individuals, which complicates the epidemic process and brings great challenges for the understanding and control of the epidemic. In this work, we consider three…
To study the influence of the moving front of the infected interval and the spatial movement of individuals on the spreading or vanishing of infectious disease, we consider a nonlocal SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible)…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
The Markovian approach, which assumes exponentially distributed interinfection times, is dominant in epidemic modeling. However, this assumption is unrealistic as an individual's infectiousness depends on its viral load and varies over…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…
This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…
We consider a family of periodic SEIRS epidemic models with a fairly general incidence rate and it is shown the basic reproduction number determines the global dynamics of the models and it is a threshold parameter for persistence.…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…