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Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Bayesian methods promise to fix many shortcomings of deep learning, but they are impractical and rarely match the performance of standard methods, let alone improve them. In this paper, we demonstrate practical training of deep networks…

Uncertainty quantification is an important task in machine learning - a task in which standardneural networks (NNs) have traditionally not excelled. This can be a limitation for safety-critical applications, where uncertainty-aware methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Felix Fiedler , Sergio Lucia

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Yibo Hu , Latifur Khan

We show that training a deep network using batch normalization is equivalent to approximate inference in Bayesian models. We further demonstrate that this finding allows us to make meaningful estimates of the model uncertainty using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-17 Mattias Teye , Hossein Azizpour , Kevin Smith

Mathematical solvers use parametrized Optimization Problems (OPs) as inputs to yield optimal decisions. In many real-world settings, some of these parameters are unknown or uncertain. Recent research focuses on predicting the value of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Alan A. Lahoud , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes A. Stork

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Constructing a robust model that can effectively generalize to test samples under distribution shifts remains a significant challenge in the field of medical imaging. The foundational models for vision and language, pre-trained on extensive…

Various approaches have been proposed for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection by augmenting models, input examples, training sets, and optimization objectives. Deviating from existing work, we have a simple hypothesis that standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Xin Dong , Junfeng Guo , Ang Li , Wei-Te Ting , Cong Liu , H. T. Kung

Object recognition and viewpoint estimation lie at the heart of visual understanding. Recent works suggest that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) category-viewpoint combinations, ie.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-18 Spandan Madan , Timothy Henry , Jamell Dozier , Helen Ho , Nishchal Bhandari , Tomotake Sasaki , Frédo Durand , Hanspeter Pfister , Xavier Boix

We present an approach to quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks in image classification, based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). While most works in the literature that use GANs to generate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Philipp Oberdiek , Gernot A. Fink , Matthias Rottmann

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

When deployed in practical applications, computer vision systems will encounter numerous unexpected images (\emph{{i.e.}}, out-of-distribution data). Due to the potentially raised safety risks, these aforementioned unseen data should be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-19 Sen Pei , Jiaxi Sun , Richard Yi Da Xu , Bin Fan , Shiming Xiang , Gaofeng Meng

By design, discriminatively trained neural network classifiers produce reliable predictions only for in-distribution samples. For their real-world deployments, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is essential. Assuming OOD to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-11 Sachin Vernekar , Ashish Gaurav , Vahdat Abdelzad , Taylor Denouden , Rick Salay , Krzysztof Czarnecki

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Winovich , Mitchell Daneker , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has gained increasing attentions for learning on graphs, as graph neural networks (GNNs) often exhibit performance degradation with distribution shifts. The challenge is that distribution shifts on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qitian Wu , Fan Nie , Chenxiao Yang , Tianyi Bao , Junchi Yan

Detecting deepfakes has become a critical challenge in Computer Vision and Artificial Intelligence. Despite significant progress in detection techniques, generalizing them to open-set scenarios continues to be a persistent difficulty.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Luca Maiano , Fabrizio Casadei , Irene Amerini