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This paper studies V-fold cross-validation for model selection in least-squares density estimation. The goal is to provide theoretical grounds for choosing V in order to minimize the least-squares loss of the selected estimator. We first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-13 Sylvain Arlot , Matthieu Lerasle

In this article we study the asymptotic predictive optimality of a model selection criterion based on the cross-validatory predictive density, already available in the literature. For a dependent variable and associated explanatory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Arijit Chakrabarti , Tapas Samanta

The asymptotic optimality (a.o.) of various hyper-parameter estimators with different optimality criteria has been studied in the literature for regularized least squares regression problems. The estimators include e.g., the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Biqiang Mu , Tianshi Chen , Lennart Ljung

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular approach for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, when the number of folds is large, CV suffers from a need to repeatedly refit a learning procedure on a large number of training datasets.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Ashia Wilson , Maximilian Kasy , Lester Mackey

We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV). The out-of-sample prediction loss of such estimators converges in distribution to the squared-error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Karun Adusumilli , Maximilian Kasy , Ashia Wilson

Cross validation is a central tool in evaluating the performance of machine learning and statistical models. However, despite its ubiquitous role, its theoretical properties are still not well understood. We study the asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou

We study the efficiency of V-fold cross-validation (VFCV) for model selection from the non-asymptotic viewpoint, and suggest an improvement on it, which we call ``V-fold penalization''. Considering a particular (though simple) regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-02-07 Sylvain Arlot

Grey-scale local algorithms have been suggested as a fast way of estimating surface area from grey-scale digital images. Their asymptotic mean has already been described. In this paper, the asymptotic behaviour of the variance is studied in…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-24 Anne Marie Svane

Cross-validation (CV) methods are popular for selecting the tuning parameter in the high-dimensional variable selection problem. We show the mis-alignment of the CV is one possible reason of its over-selection behavior. To fix this issue,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Yang Feng , Yi Yu

Choosing models from a hypothesis space is a frequent task in approximation theory and inverse problems. Cross-validation is a classical tool in the learner's repertoire to compare the goodness of fit for different reconstruction models.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Felix Bartel , Ralf Hielscher

We study subsampling-based ridge ensembles in the proportional asymptotics regime, where the feature size grows proportionally with the sample size such that their ratio converges to a constant. By analyzing the squared prediction risk of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-18 Jin-Hong Du , Pratik Patil , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Recent years have seen substantial advances in our understanding of high-dimensional ridge regression, but existing theories assume that training examples are independent. By leveraging techniques from random matrix theory and free…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-06 Alexander Atanasov , Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth , Cengiz Pehlevan

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-08 David Kepplinger , Siqi Wei

Theoretical developments on cross validation (CV) have mainly focused on selecting one among a list of finite-dimensional models (e.g., subset or order selection in linear regression) or selecting a smoothing parameter (e.g., bandwidth for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Yuhong Yang

For linear models that may have asymmetric errors, we study variable selection by cross-validation. The data are split into training and validation sets, with the number of observations in the validation set much larger than in the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Bilel Bousselmi , Gabriela Ciuperca

We study local asymptotic properties of likelihood ratios of certain Heston models. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, critical and supercritical models. For the drift parameters, local asymptotic normality is proved in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-17 János Marcell Benke , Gyula Pap

This work is concerned with the study of asymptotic properties of nonparametric density estimates in the framework of circular data. The estimation procedure here applied is based on wavelet thresholding methods: the wavelets used are the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Claudio Durastanti

We consider the convolution model where i.i.d. random variables $X_i$ having unknown density $f$ are observed with additive i.i.d. noise, independent of the $X$'s. We assume that the density $f$ belongs to either a Sobolev class or a class…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Cristina Butucea

We analyze the performance of cross-validation (CV) in the density estimation framework with two purposes: (i) risk estimation and (ii) model selection. The main focus is given to the so-called leave-$p$-out CV procedure (Lpo), where $p$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Alain Celisse

Cross-validation (CV) is known to provide asymptotically exact tests and confidence intervals for model improvement but only when the model comparison is relatively stable. Surprisingly, we prove that even simple, individually stable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey
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