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Related papers: Set coverage and robust policy

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Coherent sets of desirable gamble sets is used as a model for representing an agents opinions and choice preferences under uncertainty. In this paper we provide some results about the axioms required for coherence and the natural extension…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Catrin Campbell-Moore

In this note, I explore the implications of informational robustness under the assumption of common belief in rationality. That is, predictions for incomplete-information games which are valid across all possible information structures.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-02-08 Gabriel Ziegler

The main purpose of this paper is to find the fixed point in such cases where existing literature remain silent. In this paper we introduce partial completeness, a new type of contraction and many other definitions. Using this approach the…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-23 Tawseef Rashid , Qamrul Haque Khan

Ranks estimated from data are uncertain and this poses a challenge in many applications. However, estimated ranks are deterministic functions of estimated parameters, so the uncertainty in the ranks must be determined by the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Justin Rising

We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Botond Szabó , A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

We investigate the problem of finding confidence sets for split points in decision trees (CART). Our main results establish the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimators and some associated residual sum of squares statistics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Moulinath Banerjee , Ian W. McKeague

The following questions are discussed: ``Why confidence intervals are a hot topic?''; ``Are confidence intervals objective?''; ``What is the usefulness of coverage?''; ``How to obtain useful information from experiment?''; ``The confidence…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Giunti

The paper deals with the adaptation of a new measure for the unsupervised feature selection problems. The proposed measure is based on space filling concept and is called the coverage measure. This measure was used for judging the quality…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-28 Mohamed Laib , Mikhail Kanevski

Uncertainty may be taken to characterize inferences, their conclusions, their premises or all three. Under some treatments of uncertainty, the inferences itself is never characterized by uncertainty. We explore both the significance of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Henry E. Kyburg

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Xiao Fang , Jian Li , David Siegmund

The determination of the true source polarization given a set of measurements is complicated by the requirement that the polarization always be positive. This positive bias also hinders construction of upper limits, uncertainties, and…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-04-15 John E. Vaillancourt

Current work in planning with preferences assume that the user's preference models are completely specified and aim to search for a single solution plan. In many real-world planning scenarios, however, the user probably cannot provide any…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Tuan Nguyen , Minh Do , Alfonso Gerevini , Ivan Serina , Biplav Srivastava , Subbarao Kambhampati

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose a new approach to promote safety in classification tasks with established concepts. Our approach -- called a conceptual safeguard -- acts as a verification layer for models that predict a target outcome by first predicting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Hailey Joren , Charles Marx , Berk Ustun

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

The closure and the partitioning principles have been used to build various multiple testing procedures in the past three decades. The essence of these two principles is based on parameter space partitioning. In this article, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-20 Huajiang Li , Hong Zhou

Predicting sets of outcomes -- instead of unique outcomes -- is a promising solution to uncertainty quantification in statistical learning. Despite a rich literature on constructing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, adapting to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Hongxiang Qiu , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Adequate uncertainty representation and quantification have become imperative in various scientific disciplines, especially in machine learning and artificial intelligence. As an alternative to representing uncertainty via one single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Yusuf Sale , Michele Caprio , Eyke Hüllermeier

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Erik Learned-Miller , Philip S. Thomas