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We show that the scaling laws which determine the performance of large language models (LLMs) severely limit their ability to improve the uncertainty of their predictions. As a result, raising their reliability to meet the standards of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Peter V. Coveney , Sauro Succi

Precise estimation of downstream performance in large language models (LLMs) prior to training is essential for guiding their development process. Scaling laws analysis utilizes the statistics of a series of significantly smaller sampling…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Yangyi Chen , Binxuan Huang , Yifan Gao , Zhengyang Wang , Jingfeng Yang , Heng Ji

Increasing model size has unlocked a dazzling array of capabilities in modern language models. At the same time, even frontier models remain vulnerable to jailbreaks and prompt injections, despite concerted efforts to make them robust. As…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Nikolaus Howe , Ian McKenzie , Oskar Hollinsworth , Michał Zajac , Tom Tseng , Aaron Tucker , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Adam Gleave

As large-scale AI models expand, training becomes costlier and sustaining progress grows harder. Classical scaling laws (e.g., Kaplan et al. (2020), Hoffmann et al. (2022)) predict training loss from a static compute budget yet neglect time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Chien-Ping Lu

This work studies the general principles of improving the learning of language models (LMs), which aims at reducing the necessary training steps for achieving superior performance. Specifically, we present a theory for the optimal learning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yuxian Gu , Li Dong , Yaru Hao , Qingxiu Dong , Minlie Huang , Furu Wei

Neural scaling laws relate loss to model size in large language models (LLMs), yet depth and width may contribute to performance differently, requiring more detailed studies. Here, we quantify how depth affects loss via analysis of LLMs and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Yizhou Liu , Sara Kangaslahti , Ziming Liu , Jeff Gore

Given a fixed budget for total model size, one must choose between training a single large model or combining the predictions of multiple smaller models. We investigate this trade-off for ensembles of random-feature ridge regression models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Benjamin S. Ruben , William L. Tong , Hamza Tahir Chaudhry , Cengiz Pehlevan

The Superficial Alignment Hypothesis posits that almost all of a language model's abilities and knowledge are learned during pre-training, while post-training is about giving a model the right style and format. We re-examine these claims by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Mohit Raghavendra , Vaskar Nath , Sean Hendryx

Continual Pre-Training (CPT) has become a popular and effective method to apply strong foundation models to specific downstream tasks. In this work, we explore the learning dynamics throughout the CPT process for large language models. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Xingjin Wang , Howe Tissue , Lu Wang , Linjing Li , Daniel Dajun Zeng

The reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) has been rapidly advancing in recent years, attracting interest in more fundamental approaches that can reliably enhance their generalizability. This work demonstrates that model…

Recently, 1-bit Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged, showcasing an impressive combination of efficiency and performance that rivals traditional LLMs. Research by Wang et al. (2023); Ma et al. (2024) indicates that the performance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Majid Daliri , Zhao Song , Chiwun Yang

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Desiree Heim , Lars-Peter Meyer , Markus Schröder , Johannes Frey , Andreas Dengel

Scaling laws with respect to the amount of training data and the number of parameters allow us to predict the cost-benefit trade-offs of pretraining language models (LMs) in different configurations. In this paper, we consider another…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Rulin Shao , Jacqueline He , Akari Asai , Weijia Shi , Tim Dettmers , Sewon Min , Luke Zettlemoyer , Pang Wei Koh

Recent work has shown that scaling large language models (LLMs) improves their alignment with human brain activity, yet it remains unclear what drives these gains and which representational properties are responsible. Although larger models…

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Song Bian , Minghao Yan , Shivaram Venkataraman

Language models famously improve under a smooth scaling law, but some specific capabilities exhibit sudden breakthroughs in performance. Advocates of "emergence" view these capabilities as unlocked at a specific scale, but others attribute…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Rosie Zhao , Tian Qin , David Alvarez-Melis , Sham Kakade , Naomi Saphra

Generative retrieval reformulates retrieval as an autoregressive generation task, where large language models (LLMs) generate target documents directly from a query. As a novel paradigm, the mechanisms that underpin its performance and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Hongru Cai , Yongqi Li , Ruifeng Yuan , Wenjie Wang , Zhen Zhang , Wenjie Li , Tat-Seng Chua

Neural scaling laws describe how the performance of deep neural networks scales with key factors such as training data size, model complexity, and training time, often following power-law behaviors over multiple orders of magnitude. Despite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Roman Worschech , Bernd Rosenow

The success of machine learning has resulted from its structured representation of data. Similar data have close internal representations as compressed codes for classification or emerged labels for clustering. We observe that the frequency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-13 Sungyeop Lee , Junghyo Jo

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Sijie Li , Shanda Li , Haowei Lin , Weiwei Sun , Ameet Talwalkar , Yiming Yang
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