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In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance across various domains. However, despite their success, they often face calibration issues, particularly in safety-critical applications such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Jiani Ni , He Zhao , Jintong Gao , Dandan Guo , Hongyuan Zha

To be considered reliable, a model must be calibrated so that its confidence in each decision closely reflects its true outcome. In this blogpost we'll take a look at the most commonly used definition for calibration and then dive into a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Maja Pavlovic

Prediction models based on deep neural networks are increasingly gaining attention for fast and accurate virtual screening systems. For decision makings in virtual screening, researchers find it useful to interpret an output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Soojung Yang , Kyung Hoon Lee , Seongok Ryu

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a valuable non-invasive tool for monitoring brain activity. The classification of fNIRS data in relation to conscious activity holds significance for advancing our understanding of the brain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Zhihao Cao , Zizhou Luo

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Achintya Gopal

In this paper we consider Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with a smooth activation function as surrogates for high-dimensional functions that are somewhat smooth but costly to evaluate. We consider the standard (non-periodic) DNNs as well as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Alexander Keller , Frances Y. Kuo , Dirk Nuyens , Ian H. Sloan

Deep neural networks have proven remarkably effective at solving many classification problems, but have been criticized recently for two major weaknesses: the reasons behind their predictions are uninterpretable, and the predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Andrew Slavin Ross , Finale Doshi-Velez

Deep neural networks have achieved significant success in the last decades, but they are not well-calibrated and often produce unreliable predictions. A large number of literature relies on uncertainty quantification to evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Russell Alan Hart , Linlin Yu , Yifei Lou , Feng Chen

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated inherent calibration capabilities, where predicted probabilities align well with correctness, despite prior findings that deep neural networks are often overconfident. Recent studies have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Abhinav Joshi , Areeb Ahmad , Ashutosh Modi

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the over confidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been over looked…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Yuheng Jia , Jianhong Cheng , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou

Neural networks are powerful function approximators with tremendous potential in learning complex distributions. However, they are prone to overfitting on spurious patterns. Bayesian inference provides a principled way to regularize neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yanzhe Bekkemoen , Helge Langseth

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Chengli Tan , Yubo Zhou , Haishan Ye , Guang Dai , Junmin Liu , Zengjie Song , Jiangshe Zhang , Zixiang Zhao , Yunda Hao , Yong Xu

One of the key technologies for the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) is preference alignment. However, a notable side effect of preference alignment is poor calibration: while the pre-trained models are typically well-calibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Jiancong Xiao , Bojian Hou , Zhanliang Wang , Ruochen Jin , Qi Long , Weijie J. Su , Li Shen

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Xujiang Zhao , Yuzhe Ou , Lance Kaplan , Feng Chen , Jin-Hee Cho

Neural network-based decisions tend to be overconfident, where their raw outcome probabilities do not align with the true decision probabilities. Calibration of neural networks is an essential step towards more reliable deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Geetanjali Bihani , Julia Taylor Rayz

Model calibration, which is concerned with how frequently the model predicts correctly, not only plays a vital part in statistical model design, but also has substantial practical applications, such as optimal decision-making in the real…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Erdong Guo , David Draper , Maria De Iorio

Reliable confidence estimation is a challenging yet fundamental requirement in many risk-sensitive applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions, i.e., misclassified samples from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Fei Zhu , Xu-Yao Zhang , Zhen Cheng , Cheng-Lin Liu

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are poorly calibrated when trained in conventional ways. To improve confidence calibration of DNNs, we propose a novel training method, distance-based learning from errors (DBLE). DBLE bases its confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Chen Xing , Sercan Arik , Zizhao Zhang , Tomas Pfister

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang