Related papers: Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability S…
Long-period circumbinary planets appear to be as common as those orbiting single stars and have been found to frequently have orbital radii just beyond the critical distance for dynamical stability. Assessing the stability is typically done…
Apart from being chaotic, the inner planets in the Solar System constitute an open system, as they are forced by the regular long-term motion of the outer ones. No integrals of motion can bound a priori the stochastic wanderings in their…
Numerical N-body simulations are commonly used to explore stability regions around exoplanets, offering insights into the possible existence of satellites and ring systems. This study aims to utilize Machine Learning (ML) techniques to…
It is a challenge to obtain an accurate model of the state-to-state dynamics of a complex biological system from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In recent years, Markov State Models have gained immense popularity for computing…
To improve our understanding of orbital instabilities in compact planetary systems, we compare suites of $N$-body simulations against numerical integrations of simplified dynamical models. We show that, surprisingly, dynamical models that…
The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…
The rotation of Mercury is presently captured in a 3/2 spin-orbit resonance with the orbital mean motion. The capture mechanism is well understood as the result of tidal interactions with the Sun combined with planetary perturbations.…
A long-term numerical integration of the classical Newtonian approximation to the planetary orbital motions of the full Solar System (sun + 8 planets), spanning 20 Gyr, was performed. The results showed no severe instability arising over…
This work introduces two Monte Carlo (MC)-based sampling methods, known as line sampling and subset simulation, to improve the performance of standard MC analyses in the context of asteroid impact risk assessment. Both techniques sample the…
We interpret uncertainty in a model for seismic wave propagation by treating the model parameters as random variables, and apply the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to reduce the cost of approximating expected values of selected,…
Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…
The dynamical stability of tightly packed exoplanetary systems remains poorly understood. While for a two-planet system a sharp stability boundary exists, numerical simulations of three and more planet systems show that they can experience…
A statistical analysis is performed over more than 1001 different integrations of the secular equations of the Solar system over 5 Gyr. With this secular system, the probability of the eccentricity of Mercury to reach 0.6 in 5 Gyr is about…
In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…
Quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs)arise from stochastic processes that exhibit transient equilibrium behaviour on the way to absorption QSDs are often mathematically intractable and even drawing samples from them is not straightforward.…
In order to investigate the effects of nonmagnetic impurities in strongly correlated systems, Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulations have been carried out for the doped two-dimensional Hubbard model with one nonmagnetic impurity. Using a…
Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…
Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
We present a study of single-mode Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities (smRTI) with a modified Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (mDSMC) code in two dimensions. The mDSMC code is aimed to capture the dynamics of matter for a large range of Knudsen…