Related papers: Embracing Uncertainty in "Small Data" Problems: Es…

The upper bound earthquake magnitude (maximum possible magnitude) of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation is the right truncation point (right end-point) of a truncated exponential distribution and is important in the probabilistic…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

Detecting weak seismic events from noisy sensors is a difficult perceptual task. We formulate this task as Bayesian inference and propose a generative model of seismic events and signals across a network of spatially distributed stations.…

Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

Earthquake-induced secondary ground failure hazards, such as liquefaction and landslides, result in catastrophic building and infrastructure damage as well as human fatalities. To facilitate emergency responses and mitigate losses, the U.S.…

In order to perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) based on subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurance, or a probability…

Post-earthquake hazard and impact estimation are critical for effective disaster response, yet current approaches face significant limitations. Traditional models employ fixed parameters regardless of geographical context, misrepresenting…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

A Bayesian approach is adopted to analyze the sequence of seismic events and their magnitudes near Jo\~ao C\^amara which occurred mainly from 1983 to 1998 along the Samambaia fault. In this work, we choose a Bayesian model for the process…

Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…

We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic…

This work presents a framework to inversely quantify uncertainty in the model parameters of the friction model using earthquake data via the Bayesian inference. The forward model is the popular rate- and state- friction (RSF) model along…

We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features…