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We present Posterior Temperature Optimized Bayesian Inverse Models (POTOBIM), an unsupervised Bayesian approach to inverse problems in medical imaging using mean-field variational inference with a fully tempered posterior. Bayesian methods…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-03 Max-Heinrich Laves , Malte Tölle , Alexander Schlaefer , Sandy Engelhardt

The non-uniform surface temperature distribution of rotating active stars is routinely mapped with the Doppler Imaging technique. Inhomogeneities in the surface produce features in high-resolution spectroscopic observations that shift in…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-23 A. Asensio Ramos , C. Diaz Baso , O. Kochukhov

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

We present a simple method to obtain optimal posterior distributions and improve the quality of Bayesian inference with reduced human and computational effort. Bayes' Theorem is reformulated in the language of statistical mechanics, wherein…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alfred C. K. Farris

Recent work has observed that one can outperform exact inference in Bayesian neural networks by tuning the "temperature" of the posterior on a validation set (the "cold posterior" effect). To help interpret this phenomenon, we argue that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-04 Ben Adlam , Jasper Snoek , Samuel L. Smith

Inverse problems are often ill-posed, with solutions that depend sensitively on data. In any numerical approach to the solution of such problems, regularization of some form is needed to counteract the resulting instability. This paper is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2009-09-14 S. L. Cotter , M. Dashti , A. M. Stuart

In this work, we investigate the use of Besov priors in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. The solution to Bayesian inverse problems is the posterior distribution which naturally enables us to interpret the uncertainties. Besov…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Andreas Horst , Babak Maboudi Afkham , Yiqiu Dong , Jakob Lemvig

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

The Cold Posterior Effect (CPE) is a phenomenon in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), where tempering the posterior to a cold temperature often improves the predictive performance of the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). Although the term…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Susan Wei

In solving Bayesian inverse problems, it is often desirable to use a common density parameterization to denote the prior and posterior. Typically we seek a density from the same family as the prior which closely approximates the true…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Xiao-Mei Yang , Zhi-Liang Deng

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-19 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 L. Martino , F. Llorente , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , J. Miguez

By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems. In inverse problems the parameter or signal of interest is observed only indirectly, as an image of a given map, and the observations are typically further…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-02 Thibault Randrianarisoa , Botond Szabo

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Yinsong Chen , Samson S. Yu , Zhong Li , Chee Peng Lim

We conduct a detailed investigation of tempered posteriors and uncover a number of crucial and previously undiscussed points. Contrary to previous results, we first show that for realistic models and datasets and the tightly controlled case…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Konstantinos Pitas , Julyan Arbel

We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian noise. We assume Gaussian priors, which are conjugate to the model, and present a method of identifying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-05 Sergios Agapiou , Stig Larsson , Andrew M. Stuart

In this work, a method for obtaining pixel-wise error bounds in Bayesian regularization of inverse imaging problems is introduced. The proposed method employs estimates of the posterior variance together with techniques from conformal…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-01 Dominik Narnhofer , Andreas Habring , Martin Holler , Thomas Pock

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis
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