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Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-05 Reza Hajargasht

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-19 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 John Paisley , David Blei , Michael Jordan

To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jannik Schmitt , Stefan Roth

Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-20 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Zihuan Liu , Tapabrata Maiti

The posterior over Bayesian neural network (BNN) parameters is extremely high-dimensional and non-convex. For computational reasons, researchers approximate this posterior using inexpensive mini-batch methods such as mean-field variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Pavel Izmailov , Sharad Vikram , Matthew D. Hoffman , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Variational inference (VI) is a popular method for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian inference and probabilistic machine learning. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-18 Chenyang Zhong , Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen

We perform scalable approximate inference in continuous-depth Bayesian neural networks. In this model class, uncertainty about separate weights in each layer gives hidden units that follow a stochastic differential equation. We demonstrate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-01 Winnie Xu , Ricky T. Q. Chen , Xuechen Li , David Duvenaud

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Katerina Papagiannouli , Dario Trevisan , Giuseppe Pio Zitto

Variational Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) perform variational inference over weights, but it is difficult to specify meaningful priors and approximate posteriors in a high-dimensional weight space. We introduce functional variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-15 Shengyang Sun , Guodong Zhang , Jiaxin Shi , Roger Grosse

Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-04 Jens Sjölund

We consider the optimal approximate posterior over the top-layer weights in a Bayesian neural network for regression, and show that it exhibits strong dependencies on the lower-layer weights. We adapt this result to develop a correlated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-23 Sebastian W. Ober , Laurence Aitchison

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-02 Sefan Hörtling , Daniel Dold , Oliver Dürr , Beate Sick

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Manikanta Srikar Yellapragada , Chandra Prakash Konkimalla

Whilst deep neural networks have shown great empirical success, there is still much work to be done to understand their theoretical properties. In this paper, we study the relationship between random, wide, fully connected, feedforward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-17 Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Mark Rowland , Jiri Hron , Richard E. Turner , Zoubin Ghahramani

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Dylan Sam , Rattana Pukdee , Daniel P. Jeong , Yewon Byun , J. Zico Kolter

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) promise to combine the predictive performance of neural networks with principled uncertainty modeling important for safety-critical systems and decision making. However, posterior uncertainty estimates depend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Tristan Cinquin , Robert Bamler