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Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-20 Jackson Zhou , Clara Grazian , John Ormerod

In this work we explore a straightforward variational Bayes scheme for Recurrent Neural Networks. Firstly, we show that a simple adaptation of truncated backpropagation through time can yield good quality uncertainty estimates and superior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-13 Meire Fortunato , Charles Blundell , Oriol Vinyals

We recently proposed a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions by minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a more convenient approximating distribution. In this note we offer…

Computation · Statistics 2014-01-10 Tim Salimans

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Christian Tomani , Florian Buettner

Deep neural networks often produce miscalibrated probability estimates, leading to overconfident predictions. A common approach for calibration is fitting a post-hoc calibration map on unseen validation data that transforms predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Yunrui Zhang , Gustavo Batista , Salil S. Kanhere

In this work, we adopt a general framework based on the Gibbs posterior to update belief distributions for inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The Gibbs posterior formulation is a generalization of standard…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-04 Zilong Zou , Sayan Mukherjee , Harbir Antil , Wilkins Aquino

We present an error-diagnostic validation method for posterior distributions in Bayesian signal inference, an advancement of a previous work. It transfers deviations from the correct posterior into characteristic deviations from a uniform…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-11-05 Sebastian Dorn , Niels Oppermann , Torsten A. Enßlin

Bayesian coresets have emerged as a promising approach for implementing scalable Bayesian inference. The Bayesian coreset problem involves selecting a (weighted) subset of the data samples, such that the posterior inference using the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Jacky Y. Zhang , Rajiv Khanna , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

Neural network pruning is a highly effective technique aimed at reducing the computational and memory demands of large neural networks. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to pruning neural networks utilizing Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-07 Sunil Mathew , Daniel B. Rowe

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman

We revisit the classic ski rental problem through the lens of Bayesian decision-making and machine-learned predictions. While traditional algorithms minimize worst-case cost without assumptions, and recent learning-augmented approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Bosun Kang , Hyejun Park , Chenglin Fan

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

Bayesian optimization is popular for optimizing time-consuming black-box objectives. Nonetheless, for hyperparameter tuning in deep neural networks, the time required to evaluate the validation error for even a few hyperparameter settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-13 Jian Wu , Saul Toscano-Palmerin , Peter I. Frazier , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Several scenarios require the optimization of non-convex black-box functions, that are noisy expensive to evaluate functions with unknown analytical expression, whose gradients are hence not accessible. For example, the hyper-parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-27 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Michael Stanley Smith