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Learning dynamical systems from incomplete or noisy data is inherently ill-posed, as a single observation may correspond to multiple plausible futures. While physics-based ensemble forecasting relies on perturbing initial states to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Siddharth Rout , Eldad Haber , Stephane Gaudreault

Predicting counterfactual distributions in complex dynamical systems is essential for scientific modeling and decision-making in domains such as public health and medicine. However, existing methods often rely on point estimates or purely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Wenhao Mu , Zhi Cao , Mehmed Uludag , Alexander Rodríguez

Nonlinear (systems of) ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are common tools in the analysis of complex one-dimensional dynamic systems. In this paper we propose a smoothing approach regularized by a quasilinearized ODE-based penalty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-30 Gianluca Frasso , Jonathan Jaeger , Philippe Lambert

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

In this article, we present an extension of the formulation recently developed by the authors (A Framework for Data-Driven Computational Mechanics Based on Nonlinear Optimization, arXiv:1910.12736 [math.NA]) to the structural dynamics…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-25 Cristian Guillermo Gebhardt , Marc Christian Steinbach , Dominik Schillinger , Raimund Rolfes

We present a nonlinear dynamical approximation method for time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). The approach makes use of parametrized decoder functions, and provides a general, and principled way of understanding and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Daan Bon , Benjamin Caris , Olga Mula

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

The understanding and modeling of complex physical phenomena through dynamical systems has historically driven scientific progress, as it provides the tools for predicting the behavior of different systems under diverse conditions through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Karin L. Yu , Eleni Chatzi , Georgios Kissas

Modal synthesis methods are a long-standing approach for modelling distributed musical systems. In some cases extensions are possible in order to handle geometric nonlinearities. One such case is the high-amplitude vibration of a string,…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Victor Zheleznov , Stefan Bilbao , Alec Wright , Simon King

We propose a neural network based approach for extracting models from dynamic data using ordinary and partial differential equations. In particular, given a time-series or spatio-temporal dataset, we seek to identify an accurate governing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Yifan Sun , Linan Zhang , Hayden Schaeffer

Strongly nonlinear flows, which commonly arise in geophysical and engineering turbulence, are characterized by persistent and intermittent energy transfer between various spatial and temporal scales. These systems are difficult to model and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-01-25 Hassan Arbabi , Themistoklis Sapsis

In our previous paper [N. Tsutsumi, K. Nakai and Y. Saiki, Chaos 32, 091101 (2022)], we proposed a method for constructing a system of differential equations of chaotic behavior from only observable deterministic time series, which we call…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-11-12 Natsuki Tsutsumi , Kengo Nakai , Yoshitaka Saiki

Nonlinear systems with model uncertainty are often described by stochastic differential equations. Some techniques from random dynamical systems are discussed. They are relevant to better understanding of solution processes of stochastic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-11-25 Jinqiao Duan

Differential equations are frequently used in engineering domains, such as modeling and control of industrial systems, where safety and performance guarantees are of paramount importance. Traditional physics-based modeling approaches…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-30 Aaron Tuor , Jan Drgona , Draguna Vrabie

We study time uncertainty-aware modeling of continuous-time dynamics of interacting objects. We introduce a new model that decomposes independent dynamics of single objects accurately from their interactions. By employing latent Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Çağatay Yıldız , Melih Kandemir , Barbara Rakitsch

Identifying dynamical systems from experimental data is a notably difficult task. Prior knowledge generally helps, but the extent of this knowledge varies with the application, and customized models are often needed. Neural ordinary…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-13 Mona Buisson-Fenet , Valery Morgenthaler , Sebastian Trimpe , Florent Di Meglio

One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Dongwei Ye , Mengwu Guo

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann