Related papers: High ENSO-based 18-month lead Potential Predictabi…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
We analyse Indian summer monsoon (ISM) seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2 model, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), to examine the cause for highest all-India ISM rainfall…
Large socio-economic impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather estimated low potential predictability limit (PPL) of seasonal…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
Reliable prediction of the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is pivotal for informed policymaking for the country, impacting the lives of billions of people. However, accurate simulation of AISMR has been a persistent challenge due…
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a critical climate phenomenon, fundamentally impacting the agriculture, economy, and water security of over a billion people. Traditional long-range forecasting, whether statistical or dynamical, has…
The challenge in predicting sub-regional climate within the Indian monsoon region is exacerbated by its increasing variability in a warming world. While exploring the seasonal predictability of rainfall over the state of Tamil Nadu in…
Importance of monsoon rainfall cannot be ignored as it affects round the year activities ranging from agriculture to industrial. Accurate rainfall estimation and prediction is very helpful in decision making in the sectors of water resource…
The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
Accurate short range weather forecasting has significant implications for various sectors. Machine learning based approaches, e.g., deep learning, have gained popularity in this domain where the existing numerical weather prediction (NWP)…
Accurate monsoon rainfall prediction is vital for India's agriculture, water management, and climate risk planning, yet remains challenging due to sparse ground observations and complex regional variability. We present a multimodal deep…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
The present work is aimed to examine the potential of advanced machine learning strategies to predict the monthly rainfall (precipitation) for the Indus Basin, using climatological variables such as air temperature, geo-potential height,…
The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop…
In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network models. In formulating the Artificial Neural Network based predictive model, three layered…
We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global precipitation in general and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in particular in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. The forced…
We propose a representation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in terms of a probabilistic model based on a Markov Random Field, consisting of discrete state variables representing low and high rainfall at grid-scale and daily rainfall…