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The literature on regression kink designs develops identification results for average effects of continuous treatments (Card, Lee, Pei, and Weber, 2015), average effects of binary treatments (Dong, 2018), and quantile-wise effects of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Heng Chen , Harold D. Chiang , Yuya Sasaki

From scientific experiments to online A/B testing, the previously observed data often affects how future experiments are performed, which in turn affects which data will be collected. Such adaptivity introduces complex correlations between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-03 Xinkun Nie , Xiaoying Tian , Jonathan Taylor , James Zou

Standard estimators of the global average treatment effect can be biased in the presence of interference. This paper proposes regression adjustment estimators for removing bias due to interference in Bernoulli randomized experiments. We use…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Alex Chin

We develop a framework for difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous causal effects. We show that conventional regression-based estimators fail to provide unbiased estimates of relevant estimands…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-18 Kirill Borusyak , Xavier Jaravel , Jann Spiess

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are common in many different scientific fields including epidemiology, ecology, and economics. As with all observational studies, such designs often suffer from unmeasured confounding, which generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs , Arvid Sjölander

Covariate imbalance between treatment groups makes it difficult to compare cumulative incidence curves in competing risk analyses. In this paper we discuss different methods to estimate adjusted cumulative incidence curves including inverse…

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

In recent years, there is a growing body of causal inference literature focusing on covariate balancing methods. These methods eliminate observed confounding by equalizing covariate moments between the treated and control groups. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Xialing Wen , Ying Yan

Current epidemics in the biological and social domains are challenging the standard assumptions of mathematical contagion models. Chief among them are the complex patterns of transmission caused by heterogeneous group sizes and infection…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-03 Guillaume St-Onge , Laurent Hébert-Dufresne , Antoine Allard

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

Results in epidemiology and social science often require the removal of confounding effects from measurements of the pairwise correlation of variables in survey data. This is typically accomplished by some variant of linear regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 William H. Press

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

We propose an approach to better inform treatment decisions at an individual level by adapting recent advances in average treatment effect estimation to conditional average treatment effect estimation. Our work is based on doubly robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Aaron Fisher , Virginia Fisher

Nonlinear longitudinal proportional effect models have been proposed to improve power and provide direct estimates of the proportional treatment effect in randomized clinical trials. These models assume a fixed proportional treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Michael C. Donohue , Philip S. Insel , Oliver Langford

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

We study confidence interval construction for linear regression under Huber's contamination model, where an unknown fraction of noise variables is arbitrarily corrupted. While robust point estimation in this setting is well understood,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Dong Xie , Chao Gao , John Lafferty

Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-27 Jeroen Berrevoets , Fergus Imrie , Trent Kyono , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

It has been argued for many years that models used to analyze data from crossover designs are not appropriate when simple carryover effects are assumed. Furthermore, a statistical model that could estimate complex carry-over effects in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 N. A. Cruz , K. Mylona , O. O. Melo

Environmental epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the effect of time-varying functions of the exposure history on health outcomes. However, the individual exposure measurements that constitute the history upon which an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Ce Yang , Ning Zhang , Jiaxuan Li , Unnati V. Mehta , Jaime E. Hart , Donna Spiegelman , Molin Wang

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden