Related papers: Loss function based second-order Jensen inequality…
In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…
In machine learning and statistical modeling, the mean square or absolute error is commonly used as an error metric, also called a "loss function." While effective in reducing the average error, this approach may fail to address localized…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Variational inference is a popular technique to approximate a possibly intractable Bayesian posterior with a more tractable one. Recently, boosting variational inference has been proposed as a new paradigm to approximate the posterior by a…
Bayesian posterior distributions are widely used for inference, but their dependence on a statistical model creates some challenges. In particular, there may be lots of nuisance parameters that require prior distributions and posterior…
Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…
We study the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms -- focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) -- using a novel combination of PAC-Bayes and algorithmic stability. Importantly, our generalization bounds hold for all…
There has been much recent interest in modifying Bayesian inference for misspecified models so that it is useful for specific purposes. One popular modified Bayesian inference method is "cutting feedback" which can be used when the model…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
The empirical loss, commonly referred to as the average loss, is extensively utilized for training machine learning models. However, in order to address the diverse performance requirements of machine learning models, the use of the…
Posterior predictive p-values are a common approach to Bayesian model-checking. This article analyses their frequency behaviour, that is, their distribution when the parameters and the data are drawn from the prior and the model…
We consider the problem of selective inference after solving a (randomized) convex statistical learning program in the form of a penalized or constrained loss function. Our first main result is a change-of-measure formula that describes…
Continual learning in neural networks aims to learn new tasks without forgetting old tasks. Sequential function-space variational inference (SFSVI) uses a Gaussian variational distribution to approximate the distribution of the outputs of…
We propose a new Stein self-repulsive dynamics for obtaining diversified samples from intractable un-normalized distributions. Our idea is to introduce Stein variational gradient as a repulsive force to push the samples of Langevin dynamics…
We introduce the Probabilistic Generative Adversarial Network (PGAN), a new GAN variant based on a new kind of objective function. The central idea is to integrate a probabilistic model (a Gaussian Mixture Model, in our case) into the GAN…
Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…
Bayesian inversion generates a posterior distribution of model parameters from an observation equation and prior information both weighted by hyperparameters. The prior is also introduced for the hyperparameters in fully Bayesian inversions…
Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…
The causal effect of a randomized job training program, the JOBS II study, on trainees' depression is evaluated. Principal stratification is used to deal with noncompliance to the assigned treatment. Due to the latent nature of the…
The abundance of modern health data provides many opportunities for the use of machine learning techniques to build better statistical models to improve clinical decision making. Predicting time-to-event distributions, also known as…