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Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

When several models have similar training scores, classical model selection heuristics follow Occam's razor and advise choosing the ones with least capacity. Yet, modern practice with large neural networks has often led to situations where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Luis Sa-Couto , Jose Miguel Ramos , Andreas Wichert

Deep learning models can perform well when evaluated on images from the same distribution as the training set. However, applying small perturbations in the forms of noise, artifacts, occlusions, blurring, etc. to a model's input image and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Zahra Golpayegani , Patrick St-Amant , Nizar Bouguila

Confidence estimation aims to quantify the confidence of the model prediction, providing an expectation of success. A well-calibrated confidence estimate enables accurate failure prediction and proper risk measurement when given noisy…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-23 Yu Lu , Jiali Zeng , Jiajun Zhang , Shuangzhi Wu , Mu Li

Recent studies have shown that deep neural networks are not well-calibrated and often produce over-confident predictions. The miscalibration issue primarily stems from using cross-entropy in classifications, which aims to align predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Daehwan Kim , Haejun Chung , Ikbeom Jang

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Navid Kardan , Ankit Sharma , Kenneth O. Stanley

Algorithmic approaches endow deep learning systems with implicit bias that helps them generalize even in over-parametrized settings. In this paper, we focus on understanding such a bias induced in learning through dropout, a popular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-27 Poorya Mianjy , Raman Arora , Rene Vidal

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a complicated problem due to the idiosyncrasies of possible distribution shifts between training and test domains. Most benchmarks employ diverse datasets to address this issue; however, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Kaican Li , Yifan Zhang , Lanqing Hong , Zhenguo Li , Nevin L. Zhang

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In many applications with real-world consequences, it is crucial to develop reliable uncertainty estimation for the predictions made by the AI decision systems. Targeting at the goal of estimating uncertainty, various deep neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Huimin Zeng , Zhenrui Yue , Yang Zhang , Ziyi Kou , Lanyu Shang , Dong Wang

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for reliably deploying machine learning models in the wild. Yet, most methods treat large pre-trained models as monolithic encoders and rely solely on their final-layer representations for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-21 I. M. De la Jara , C. Rodriguez-Opazo , D. Teney , D. Ranasinghe , E. Abbasnejad

Sampling-based methods, e.g., Deep Ensembles and Bayesian Neural Nets have become promising approaches to improve the quality of uncertainty estimation and robust generalization. However, they suffer from a large model size and high latency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Ha Manh Bui , Anqi Liu

Neural Network (NN) classifiers can assign extreme probabilities to samples that have not appeared during training (out-of-distribution samples) resulting in erroneous and unreliable predictions. One of the causes for this unwanted…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-12 Niccolò Antonello , Philip N. Garner

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Machine translation is a popular test bed for research in neural sequence-to-sequence models but despite much recent research, there is still a lack of understanding of these models. Practitioners report performance degradation with large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-08-14 Myle Ott , Michael Auli , David Grangier , Marc'Aurelio Ranzato

Uncertainty estimation is a key component in any deployed machine learning system. One way to evaluate uncertainty estimation is using "out-of-distribution" (OoD) detection, that is, distinguishing between the training data distribution and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Haiwen Huang , Joost van Amersfoort , Yarin Gal

Despite achieving enormous success in predictive accuracy for visual classification problems, deep neural networks (DNNs) suffer from providing overconfident probabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Yet, accurate uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are often coupled with physics-based models or data-driven surrogate models to perform fault detection and health monitoring of systems in the low data regime. These models serve as digital twins to generate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Laya Das , Blazhe Gjorgiev , Giovanni Sansavini

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Masha Itkina , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

A widely believed explanation for the remarkable generalization capacities of overparameterized neural networks is that the optimization algorithms used for training induce an implicit bias towards benign solutions. To grasp this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Maria Matveev , Vit Fojtik , Hung-Hsu Chou , Gitta Kutyniok , Johannes Maly
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