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Related papers: Nonlinear Hawkes Processes in Time-Varying System

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Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 François Roueff , Rainer Von Sachs

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-31 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Duncan A Clark , Conor J. Kresin , Charlotte M. Jones-Todd

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-10 Xuefeng Gao , Xiang Zhou , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

In the last decade, Hawkes processes have received a lot of attention as good models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks. In this paper we consider a variant of this process, the Age Dependent Hawkes process, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Mads Bonde Raad , Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith

Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-12-30 Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Sophie Phillips

Hawkes processes are point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties that are popular in applications. In recent years, renewal Hawkes processes have gained attention, due to their versatility such as the capability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Lirong Cui , Yongji Zhang , Lingjiong Zhu

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

Hawkes point processes are first-order non-Markovian stochastic models of intermittent bursty dynamics with applications to physical, seismic, epidemic, biological, financial, and social systems. While accounting for positive feedback loops…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-02-02 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Zhipeng Huang , Hadeel Soliman , Subhadeep Paul , Kevin S. Xu

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu