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While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a revolution in numerous fields during the last decade. However, in tasks with high safety requirements, such as medical or autonomous driving applications, providing an assessment of the models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Omer Achrack , Raizy Kellerman , Ouriel Barzilay

In this paper, we revisit techniques for uncertainty estimation within deep neural networks and consolidate a suite of techniques to enhance their reliability. Our investigation reveals that an integrated application of diverse…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Yuting Li , Yingyi Chen , Xuanlong Yu , Dexiong Chen , Xi Shen

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-25 Axel Brando , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Mauricio Ciprian , Roberto Maestre , Jordi Vitrià

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Modern deep models for summarization attains impressive benchmark performance, but they are prone to generating miscalibrated predictive uncertainty. This means that they assign high confidence to low-quality predictions, leading to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Polina Zablotskaia , Du Phan , Joshua Maynez , Shashi Narayan , Jie Ren , Jeremiah Liu

Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Qishi Zhan , Minxuan Hu , Guansu Wang , Jiaxin Liu , Liang He

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

Recent work has shown that the hidden states of large language models contain signals useful for uncertainty estimation and hallucination detection, motivating a growing interest in efficient probe-based approaches. Yet it remains unclear…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Joe Stacey , Hadas Orgad , Kentaro Inui , Benjamin Heinzerling , Nafise Sadat Moosavi

Reliable and robust evaluation methods are a necessary first step towards developing machine learning models that are themselves robust and reliable. Unfortunately, current evaluation protocols typically used to assess classifiers fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Michael W. Spratling

The recent advancements in Deep Learning models and techniques have led to significant strides in performance across diverse tasks and modalities. However, while the overall capabilities of models show promising growth, our understanding of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-04 Erik Arakelyan

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-10 Illia Oleksiienko , Alexandros Iosifidis

A critical yet frequently overlooked challenge in the field of deepfake detection is the lack of a standardized, unified, comprehensive benchmark. This issue leads to unfair performance comparisons and potentially misleading results.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Zhiyuan Yan , Yong Zhang , Xinhang Yuan , Siwei Lyu , Baoyuan Wu

Handling missing data is a central challenge in data-driven analysis. Modern imputation methods not only aim for accurate reconstruction but also differ in how they represent and quantify uncertainty. Yet, the reliability and calibration of…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Zarin Tahia Hossain , Mostafa Milani

Like all sub-fields of machine learning Bayesian Deep Learning is driven by empirical validation of its theoretical proposals. Given the many aspects of an experiment it is always possible that minor or even major experimental flaws can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Jishnu Mukhoti , Pontus Stenetorp , Yarin Gal

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Quality-Diversity optimisation (QD) has proven to yield promising results across a broad set of applications. However, QD approaches struggle in the presence of uncertainty in the environment, as it impacts their ability to quantify the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Manon Flageat , Antoine Cully