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We study Granger causality testing for high-dimensional time series using regularized regressions. To perform proper inference, we rely on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the asymptotic variance and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-02 Andrii Babii , Eric Ghysels , Jonas Striaukas

When a dynamical system can be modeled as a sequence of observations, Granger causality is a powerful approach for detecting predictive interactions between its variables. However, traditional Granger causal inference has limited utility in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Rohit Singh , Alexander P. Wu , Bonnie Berger

Characterising cause-effect relationships in complex systems is fundamental to understanding their underlying mechanisms. Granger causality (GC) remains a widely used computational tool for identifying causal relationships in time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 S. A. Adedayo

A challenging problem when studying a dynamical system is to find the interdependencies among its individual components. Several algorithms have been proposed to detect directed dynamical influences between time series. Two of the most used…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-09-09 Alessandro Montalto , Sebastiano Stramaglia , Luca Faes , Giovanni Tessitore , Roberto Prevete , Daniele Marinazzo

A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series $X$, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix $\hat{B}$ causally. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-23 Philipp Geiger , Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alex Tank , Ian Covert , Nicholas Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily Fox

Over the past two decades, the rapid surge in data-intensive computational techniques for statistical modeling may have had the effect of diminishing the use of applied mathematics in causal scientific inquiry. In this paper, co-authored by…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Marzieh Asgari-Targhi , Amene Asgari-Targhi , Mahboubeh Asgari-Targhi , Edward J. , Hall

The structure of return spillovers is examined by constructing Granger causality networks using daily closing prices of 20 developed markets from 2nd January 2006 to 31st December 2013. The data is properly aligned to take into account…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-22 Tomáš Výrost , Štefan Lyócsa , Eduard Baumöhl

We propose a novel framework for studying causal inference of gene interactions using a combination of compressive sensing and Granger causality techniques. The gist of the approach is to discover sparse linear dependencies between time…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-28 Mo Deng , Amin Emad , Olgica Milenkovic

Causal discovery problems use a set of observations to deduce causality between variables in the real world, typically to answer questions about biological or physical systems. These observations are often recorded at regular time…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-24 Kurt Butler , Damian Machlanski , Panagiotis Dimitrakopoulos , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

We analyze a neural system which mimics a sensorial cortex, with different input characteristics, in presence of transmission delays. We propose a new measure to characterize collective behavior, based on the nonlinear extension of the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-25 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Extracting the interaction rules of biological agents from movement sequences pose challenges in various domains. Granger causality is a practical framework for analyzing the interactions from observed time-series data; however, this…

Since interactions in neural systems occur across multiple temporal scales, it is likely that information flow will exhibit a multiscale structure, thus requiring a multiscale generalization of classical temporal precedence causality…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-13 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Iege Bassez , Luca Faes , Daniele Marinazzo

Understanding the causal interaction of time series variables can contribute to time series data analysis for many real-world applications, such as climate forecasting and extreme weather alerts. However, causal relationships are difficult…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Dongqi Fu , Yada Zhu , Hanghang Tong , Kommy Weldemariam , Onkar Bhardwaj , Jingrui He

Predicting the response of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to random, broadband excitation is important across a range of scientific disciplines, such as structural dynamics and neuroscience. Building data-driven models requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Joseph Massingham , Ole Nielsen , Tore Butlin

Inference of causality is central in nonlinear time series analysis and science in general. A popular approach to infer causality between two processes is to measure the information flow between them in terms of transfer entropy. Using…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-04-16 Jie Sun , Erik M. Bollt

We propose a definition of causality for time series in terms of the effect of an intervention in one component of a multivariate time series on another component at some later point in time. Conditions for identifiability, comparable to…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-26 Michael Eichler , Vanessa Didelez

Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-25 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Raha Moraffah , Paras Sheth , Mansooreh Karami , Anchit Bhattacharya , Qianru Wang , Anique Tahir , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

Sharing spectrum with a communicating incumbent user (IU) network requires avoiding interference to IU receivers. But since receivers are passive when in the receive mode and cannot be detected, the network topology can be used to predict…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Mihir Laghate , Danijela Cabric
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