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Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Michael Braun , Paul Damien

Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2010-01-20 Tina Toni , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-09 Jonas Latz , Doris Schneider , Philipp Wacker

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…

Computation · Statistics 2010-10-11 Nicolas Chopin , Christian Robert

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-03 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Giacomo Zanella

A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-23 Jan Boelts

In Bayesian inverse problems, the posterior distribution is used to quantify uncertainty about the reconstructed solution. In practice, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms often are used to draw samples from the posterior distribution.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-13 D. Andrew Brown , Arvind Saibaba , Sarah Vallélian

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-02 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet , Aliaksadr Hubin

We explore the theoretical and numerical property of a fully Bayesian model selection method in sparse ultrahigh-dimensional settings, i.e., $p\gg n$, where $p$ is the number of covariates and $n$ is the sample size. Our method consists of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-13 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

The data torrent unleashed by current and upcoming astronomical surveys demands scalable analysis methods. Many machine learning approaches scale well, but separating the instrument measurement from the physical effects of interest, dealing…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-19 Johannes Buchner

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

Generative diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful strategy to perform stochastic sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, delivering remarkably accurate solutions for a wide range of challenging applications. However, diffusion…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-15 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Marcelo Pereyra , Luke Shaw , Konstantinos Zygalakis

In this paper we propose a bayesian approach for near-duplicate image detection, and investigate how different probabilistic models affect the performance obtained. The task of identifying an image whose metadata are missing is often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Lucas Moutinho Bueno , Eduardo Valle , Ricardo da Silva Torres

Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-15 Tom Edinburgh , Ari Ercole , Stephen J. Eglen

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön