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We offer a graphical interpretation of unfairness in a dataset as the presence of an unfair causal path in the causal Bayesian network representing the data-generation mechanism. We use this viewpoint to revisit the recent debate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-16 Silvia Chiappa , William S. Isaac

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Shunsuke Horii , Yoichi Chikahara

We present a Bayesian perspective on quantifying the uncertainty of graph signals estimated or reconstructed from imperfect observations. We show that many conventional methods of graph signal estimation, reconstruction and imputation, can…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-22 Lennard Rompelberg , Michael T. Schaub

Causal inference is a vital aspect of multiple scientific disciplines and is routinely applied to high-impact applications such as medicine. However, evaluating the performance of causal inference methods in real-world environments is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Mathieu Chevalley , Yusuf Roohani , Arash Mehrjou , Jure Leskovec , Patrick Schwab

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata

In experimental causal inference, we distinguish between two sources of uncertainty: design uncertainty, due to the treatment assignment mechanism, and sampling uncertainty, when the sample is drawn from a super-population. This distinction…

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Bell's theorem, a cornerstone of quantum theory, shows that quantum correlations are incompatible with a classical theory of cause and effect. Through the lens of causal inference, it can be understood as a particular case of causal…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-05-30 Pedro Lauand , Bereket Ngussie Bekele , Elie Wolfe

Real-world time series data often exhibits substantial missing values, posing challenges for advanced analysis. A common approach to addressing this issue is imputation, where the primary challenge lies in determining the appropriate values…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ying Liu , Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Richang Hong

Intervention theories of causality define a relationship as causal if appropriately specified interventions to manipulate a putative cause tend to produce changes in the putative effect. Interventionist causal theories are commonly…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-10-08 Kathryn B. Laskey

Uncovering the underlying causal mechanisms of complex real-world systems remains a significant challenge, as these systems often entail high data collection costs and involve unknown interventions. We introduce MetaCaDI, the first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Hans Jarett Ong , Yoichi Chikahara , Tomoharu Iwata

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-21 Matthew Plumlee , Henry Lam

Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Peng Ding , Fan Li

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen