Related papers: Tempered Stable Autoregressive Models
Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…
The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…
We consider stationary autoregressive processes with coefficients restricted to an ellipsoid, which includes autoregressive processes with absolutely summable coefficients. We provide consistency results under different norms for the…
This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…
Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…
For each $\lambda>0$ and every square-integrable infinitely-divisible (ID) distribution there exists at least one stationary stochastic process $t\mapsto X_t$ with the specified distribution for $X_1$ and with first-order autoregressive…
We consider high-dimensional distribution estimation through autoregressive networks. By combining the concepts of sparsity, mixtures and parameter sharing we obtain a simple model which is fast to train and which achieves state-of-the-art…
We consider a network of sensors deployed to sense a spatio-temporal field and estimate a parameter of interest. We are interested in the case where the temporal process sensed by each sensor can be modeled as a state-space process that is…
Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an…
As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…
In the fields of sociology and economics, the modeling of matrix-variate integervalued time series is urgent. However, no prior studies have addressed the modeling of such data. To address this topic, this paper proposes a novel…
By combining different ideas, a general and efficient protocol to deal with discontinuous phase transitions at low temperatures is proposed. For small $T$'s, it is possible to derive a generic analytic expression for appropriate order…
This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to…
In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…
This paper suggests parametrically transformed nested error regression models (TNERM), which transform the data flexibly to follow the normal linear mixed regression. We provide a procedure for estimating consistently the parameters of the…
We introduce a two-parameter expectation thinning operator based on a linear fractional probability generating function. The operator is then used to define a first-order integer-valued autoregressive \inar1 process. Distributional…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…
We propose a simple stochastic process for modeling improper or noncircular complex-valued signals. The process is a natural extension of a complex-valued autoregressive process, extended to include a widely linear autoregressive term. This…
This paper is focused on the statistical analysis of data consisting of a collection of multiple series of probability measures that are indexed by distinct time instants and supported over a bounded interval of the real line. By modeling…