Related papers: Tempered Stable Autoregressive Models
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil…
In this paper, we present a fractional decomposition of the probability generating function of the innovation process of the first-order non-negative integer-valued autoregressive [INAR(1)] process to obtain the corresponding probability…
Large sample statistical analysis of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models is usually based on the assumption that the underlying driving noise is uncorrelated. In this paper, we consider a model, driven by Gaussian noise with geometric…
An inhomogeneous first--order integer--valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process is investigated, where the autoregressive type coefficient slowly converges to one. It is shown that the process converges weakly to a Poisson or a compound…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…
We consider ultraweak variational formulations for (parametrized) linear first order transport equations in time and/or space. Computationally feasible pairs of optimally stable trial and test spaces are presented, starting with a suitable…
Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…
In this article, we discuss some geometric infinitely divisible (gid) random variables using the Laplace exponents which are Bernstein functions and study their properties. The distributional properties and limiting behavior of the…
In this paper we introduce a new parametric distribution, the Mixed Tempered Stable. It has the same structure of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures but the normality assumption leaves place to a semi-heavy tailed distribution. We show that,…
We construct an autoregressive model with random coefficients that has a stationary distribution after proper normalization. This limit distribution is found to be stable.
Series of univariate distributions indexed by equally spaced time points are ubiquitous in applications and their analysis constitutes one of the challenges of the emerging field of distributional data analysis. To quantify such…
In this paper, we introduce the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) model, with Poisson-Lindley innovations based on power series thinning operator. Some mathematical features of this process are given and estimating the…
The conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model, and its variants have become the predominant strategies for modeling regional or areal-referenced spatial data. The overwhelming wide-use of the CAR/SAR…
The structure of stationary first order max-autoregressive schemes with max-semi-stable marginals is studied. A connection between semi-selfsimilar extremal processes and this max-autoregressive scheme is discussed resulting in their…