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We study constrained selection sets of random closed sets defined on a non-atomic probability space. Given a random interval $Y=[y_L,y_U]$ and scalar constraints on the expectation or the median of admissible selections, we characterize the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Arie Beresteanu , Behrooz Moosavi Rameznzadeh

For the measurement of $N_s$ signals in $N$ events rigorous confidence bounds on the true signal probability $p_{\rm exact}$ were established in a classical paper by Clopper and Pearson [Biometrica 26, 404 (1934)]. Here, their bounds are…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2009-10-31 Bernd A. Berg

An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density \gamma,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Iain M. Johnstone , Bernard W. Silverman

We consider the confidence interval centered on a frequentist model averaged estimator that was proposed by Buckland, Burnham & Augustin (1997). In the context of a simple testbed situation involving two linear regression models, we derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 Paul Kabaila , Alan H. Welsh , Christeen Wijethunga

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

This paper is devoted to the statistical and numerical properties of the geometric median, and its applications to the problem of robust mean estimation via the median of means principle. Our main theoretical results include (a) an upper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Stanislav Minsker , Nate Strawn

This paper considers the problem of constructing a confidence sequence, which is a sequence of confidence intervals that hold uniformly over time, for estimating the mean of bounded real-valued random processes. This paper revisits the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-27 J. Jon Ryu , Alankrita Bhatt

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Robert Lunde , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We consider the problem of constructing robust nonparametric confidence intervals and tests of hypothesis for the median when the data distribution is unknown and the data may contain a small fraction of contamination. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Victor J. Yohai , Ruben H. Zamar

The purpose of this letter is to improve Hoeffding's lemma and consequently Hoeffding's tail bounds. The improvement pertains to left skewed zero mean random variables $X\in[a,b]$, where $a<0$ and $-a>b$. The proof of Hoeffding's improved…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-08 David Hertz

Estimates are constructed for the deviation of the concentration functions of sums of independent random variables with finite variances from the folded normal distribution function without any assumptions concerning the existence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-11 V. Yu. Korolev , A. V. Dorofeeva

McDiarmid's inequality has recently been proposed as a tool for setting margin requirements for complex systems. If $F$ is the bounded output of a complex system, depending on a vector of $n$ bounded inputs, this inequality provides a bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-16 Timothy C. Wallstrom

Cosmological fine-tuning has traditionally been associated with the narrowness of the intervals in which the parameters of the physical models must be located to make life possible. A more thorough approach focuses on the probability of the…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2022-04-26 Daniel Andrés Díaz-Pachón , Ola Hössjer , Robert J. Marks

We provide a systematic approach to deal with the following problem. Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be, possibly dependent, $[0,1]$-valued random variables. What is a sharp upper bound on the probability that their sum is significantly larger than…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-27 Christos Pelekis , Jan Ramon

A large class of problems in sciences and engineering can be formulated as the general problem of constructing random intervals with pre-specified coverage probabilities for the mean. Wee propose a general approach for statistical inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-11 Xinjia Chen

Sampling from various kinds of distributions is an issue of paramount importance in statistics since it is often the key ingredient for constructing estimators, test procedures or confidence intervals. In many situations, the exact sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Avetik Karagulyan

We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors $k$ may depend on and diverge with sample size $n$. In addition to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-08 Ulrike Schneider

We introduce new goodness-of-fit tests and corresponding confidence bands for distribution functions. They are inspired by multi-scale methods of testing and based on refined laws of the iterated logarithm for the normalized uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Lutz Duembgen , Jon A. Wellner

The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 D. A. S. Fraser , N. Reid , A. C. M. Wong

A statistical model is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates perfectly match the true means of the underlying responses. Aiming for calibration is often not achievable in practice as one has to deal with finite samples of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Łukasz Delong , Selim Gatti , Mario V. Wüthrich