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Countries officially record the number of COVID-19 cases based on medical tests of a subset of the population with unknown participation bias. For prevalence estimation, the official information is typically discarded and, instead, small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-25 Stéphane Guerrier , Christoph Kuzmics , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-16 Jiahao Zhang , Keith Sabin , Le Bao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many institutions such as universities and workplaces implemented testing regimens with every member of some population tested longitudinally, and those testing positive isolated for some time. Although the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Patrick M. Schnell , Matthew Wascher , Grzegorz A. Rempala

We present a new joint longitudinal and survival model aimed at estimating the association between the risk of an event and the change in and history of a biomarker that is repeatedly measured over time. We use cubic B-splines models for…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Elizabeth R. Brown

In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-16 Sivan Leviyang

With the advent of effective pre-exposure prophylaxis agents, active-controlled HIV prevention trials have become a common study design. Nevertheless, estimating absolute efficacy relative to a placebo remains important. In this paper, we…

The OraQuick In-Home HIV self-test represents a fast, inexpensive, and convenient method for users to assess their HIV status. If integrated thoughtfully into existing testing practices, accompanied by efficient pathways to formal…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-08 Alex Viguerie , Chaitra Gopalappa , Cynthia M. Lyles , Paul G. Farnham

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-01 Richard A. Neher , Thomas Leitner

Safe and effective preventive vaccines have the potential to help stem the HIV epidemic. The efficacy of such vaccines is typically measured in randomized, double-blind phase IIb/III trials and described as a reduction in newly acquired HIV…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Yutong Jin , Alex Luedtke , Zoe Moodie , Holly Janes , David Benkeser

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-09-29 L. F. Lopez , F. A. B. Coutinho , M. N. Burattini , E. Massad

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially groups most at-risk for HIV/AIDS. Data are collected through a peer-referral process in which current sample members…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-28 Krista J. Gile , Lisa G. Johnston , Matthew J. Salganik

The aim of this work is to develop methods for studying the determinants of marriage incidence using marriage histories collected under two different types of retrospective cross-sectional study designs. These designs are: sampling of ever…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-25 Sangita Kulathinal , Minna Säävälä , Kari Auranen , Olli Saarela

Causal inference methods can be applied to estimate the effect of a point exposure or treatment on an outcome of interest using data from observational studies. For example, in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, it is of interest to…

Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-10 Brian G. Williams

Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-18 Enrique M. Saldarriaga

Estimating prevalence, the fraction of a population with a certain medical condition, is fundamental to epidemiology. Traditional methods rely on classification of test samples taken at random from a population. Such approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-25 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

While the HVTN 505 trial showed no overall efficacy of the tested vaccine to prevent HIV infection over placebo, previous studies, biological theories, and the finding that immune response markers strongly correlated with infection in…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-12 Peter B. Gilbert , Bryan S. Blette , Bryan E. Shepherd , Michael G. Hudgens

Network models are increasingly used to study infectious disease spread. Exponential Random Graph models have a history in this area, with scalable inference methods now available. An alternative approach uses mechanistic network models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-11 Octavious Smiley , Till Hoffmann , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-24 Ravi Goyal , Kevin Nguyen , Victor De Gruttola , Susan J Little , Colby Cohen , Natasha K Martin

Confounding and exposure measurement error can introduce bias when drawing inference about the marginal effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest. While there are broad methodologies for addressing each source of bias individually,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-29 Brian D. Richardson , Bryan S. Blette , Peter B. Gilbert , Michael G. Hudgens