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Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

In this paper, we establish uniform asymptotic certainty bands for the conditional cumulative distribution function. To this aim, we give exact rate of strong uniform consistency for the local linear estimator of this function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-21 Sandie Ferrigno , Bernard Foliguet , Myriam Maumy-Bertrand , Aurélie Muller-Gueudin

When the study variable is functional and storage capacities are limited or transmission costs are high, selecting with survey sampling techniques a small fraction of the observations is an interesting alternative to signal compression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-15 Hervé Cardot , Camelia Goga , Pauline Lardin

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

We consider nonparametric estimation of mean regression and conditional variance (or volatility) functions in nonlinear stochastic regression models. Simultaneous confidence bands are constructed and the coverage probabilities are shown to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-08 Zhibiao Zhao , Wei Biao Wu

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Subhrasish Chakraborty , Chhavi Tyagi , Haiyan Qiao , Wenge Guo

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In this paper, we consider a weighted local linear estimator based on the inverse selection probability for nonparametric regression with missing covariates at random. The asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 Li Cai , Lijie Gu , Qihua Wang , Suojin Wang

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Predicting the response at an unobserved location is a fundamental problem in spatial statistics. Given the difficulty in modeling spatial dependence, especially in non-stationary cases, model-based prediction intervals are at risk of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-09 Huiying Mao , Ryan Martin , Brian Reich

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

Confidence bands are confidence sets for an unknown function f, containing all functions within some sup-norm distance of an estimator. In the density estimation, regression, and white noise models, we consider the problem of constructing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Adam D. Bull

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

Asymptotic uniform confidence bands are constructed for a multivariate nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic noise, employing histogram estimators under flexible partition conditions. The construction is especially applicable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Natalie Neumeyer , Jan Rabe , Mathias Trabs