Related papers: Granger Causality from Quantized Measurements
One of the basic aims in science is to unravel the chain of cause and effect of particular systems. Especially for large systems this can be a daunting task. Detailed interventional and randomized data sampling approaches can be used to…
In this paper we test for Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VARs) to disentangle and interpret the complex causal chains linking radiative forcings and global temperatures. By allowing for high…
The main approach to defining equivalence among acyclic directed causal graphical models is based on the conditional independence relationships in the distributions that the causal models can generate, in terms of the Markov equivalence.…
Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In…
Assessing the magnitude of cause-and-effect relations is one of the central challenges found throughout the empirical sciences. The problem of identification of causal effects is concerned with determining whether a causal effect can be…
This paper generalizes the notion of stochastic order to a relation between probability measures over arbitrary measurable spaces. This generalization is motivated by the observation that for the stochastic ordering of two stationary Markov…
In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under…
We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…
Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models…
We consider bootstrap inference in predictive (or Granger-causality) regressions when the parameter of interest may lie on the boundary of the parameter space, here defined by means of a smooth inequality constraint. For instance, this…
The dependencies of the lagged (Pearson) correlation function on the coefficients of multivariate autoregressive models are interpreted in the framework of time series graphs. Time series graphs are related to the concept of Granger…
We show for the first time that, under the null hypothesis of vanishing Granger causality, the single-regression Granger-Geweke estimator converges to a generalised $\chi^2$ distribution, which may be well approximated by a $\Gamma$…
An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…
We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning…
The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…
We consider modeling a binary response variable together with a set of covariates for two groups under observational data. The grouping variable can be the confounding variable (the common cause of treatment and outcome), gender,…
Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…
The purpose of this paper is to introduce a notion of causality in Markov decision processes based on the probability-raising principle and to analyze its algorithmic properties. The latter includes algorithms for checking cause-effect…
Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference,…
In the context of generalized measurement theory, the Gleason-Busch theorem assures the unique form of the associated probability function. Recently, in Flatt et al. Phys. Rev. A 96, 062125 (2017), the case of subsequent measurements has…