Related papers: Semiparametric tail-index estimation for randomly …
The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…
We provide an efficient algorithm for the classical problem, going back to Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, of estimating, with arbitrary accuracy the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution from truncated samples. Truncated samples…
Asymptotic theory of tail index estimation has been studied extensively in the frequentist literature on extreme values, but rarely in the Bayesian context. We investigate whether popular Bayesian kernel mixture models are able to support…
We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…
Proper econometric analysis should be informed by data structure. Many forms of financial data are recorded in discrete-time and relate to products of a finite term. If the data comes from a financial trust, it will often be further subject…
We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…
Low-rank tensor models are widely used in statistics. However, most existing methods rely heavily on the assumption that data follows a sub-Gaussian distribution. To address the challenges associated with heavy-tailed distributions…
We present an algorithm for distributed estimation of an unknown vector parameter $\boldsymbol{\theta}^\ast \in {\mathbb R}^M$ in the presence of heavy-tailed observation and communication noises. Heavy-tailed noises frequently appear,…
In this paper we propose a general series method to estimate a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient model. We establish the consistency and \sqrtn-normality property of the estimator of the finite-dimensional parameters of…
Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…
We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…
Bayesian composite likelihood estimation of the tail index of a heavy-tailed distribution is addressed when data are randomly right-censored. Maximum a posteriori and mean posterior estimators are constructed under Jeffrey's prior…
This work proposes a novel method to robustly and accurately model time series with heavy-tailed noise, in non-stationary scenarios. In many practical application time series have heavy-tailed noise that significantly impacts the…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…
We derive in this article the asymptotic behavior as well as non-asymptotical estimates of tail of distribution for self-normalized sums of random variables (r.v.) under natural classical norming. We investigate also the case of…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
In several different fields, there is interest in analyzing the upper or lower tail quantile of the underlying distribution rather than mean or center quantile. However, the investigation of the tail quantile is difficult because of data…
In this paper we propose a new approach to estimation of the tail exponent in financial stock markets. We begin the study with the finite sample behavior of the Hill estimator under {\alpha}-stable distributions. Using large Monte Carlo…