Related papers: Simulating flood event sets using extremal princip…

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…

To account for volatile renewable energy supply, energy systems optimization problems require high temporal resolution. Many models use time-series clustering to find representative periods to reduce the amount of time-series input data and…

Extreme events arising in georeferenced processes can take various forms, such as occurring in isolated patches or stretching contiguously over large areas, and can further vary with the spatial location and the extremeness of the events.…

Dynamical systems with high intrinsic dimensionality are often characterized by extreme events having the form of rare transitions several standard deviations away from the mean. For such systems, order-reduction methods through projection…

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…

The use of the annual maximum series for flood frequency analyses limits the considered information to one event per year and one sample that is assumed to be homogeneous. However, flood may have different generating processes, such as…

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

Aiming to deliver improved precipitation simulations for hydrological impact assessment studies, we develop a methodology for modelling and simulating high-dimensional spatial precipitation extremes, focusing on both their marginal…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges is crucial, particularly for coastal risk management. Our study focuses on modelling extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coast, with a particular emphasis on investigating the extremal…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

A machine learning model is proposed in this paper to help estimate potential nodal load curtailment in response to an extreme event. This is performed through identifying which grid components will fail as a result of an extreme event, and…

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…

Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…

Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme…

Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Extreme events play a crucial role in fluid turbulence. Inspired by methods from field theory, these extreme events, their evolution and probability can be computed with help of the instanton formalism as minimizers of a suitable action…

One measurement modality for rainfall is a fixed location rain gauge. However, extreme rainfall, flooding, and other climate extremes often occur at larger spatial scales and affect more than one location in a community. For example, in…