Related papers: Simulating flood event sets using extremal princip…
Floods are among the most common and devastating natural hazards, imposing immense costs on our society and economy due to their disastrous consequences. Recent progress in weather prediction and spaceborne flood mapping demonstrated the…
Preventive control is a crucial strategy for power system operation against impending natural hazards, and its effectiveness fundamentally relies on the realism of scenario generation. While most existing studies employ sequential Monte…
Visualization is an essential operation when assessing the risk of rare events such as coastal or river floodings. The goal is to display a few prototype events that best represent the probability law of the observed phenomenon, a task…
We derive precursors of extreme dissipation events in a turbulent channel flow. Using a recently developed method that combines dynamics and statistics for the underlying attractor, we extract a characteristic state that precedes…
Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…
Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
Recent work has suggested that in highly correlated systems, such as sandpiles, turbulent fluids, ignited trees in forest fires and magnetization in a ferromagnet close to a critical point, the probability distribution of a global quantity…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…
Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…
Leveraging the recently emerging geometric approach to multivariate extremes and the flexibility of normalising flows on the hypersphere, we propose a principled deep-learning-based methodology that enables accurate joint tail extrapolation…
Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…
In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…
Time series and extreme value analyses are two statistical approaches usually applied to study hydrological data. Classical techniques, such as ARIMA models (in the case of mean flow predictions), and parametric generalised extreme value…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…
Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…