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We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Methods for reconstructing the topology of complex networks from time-resolved observations of node dynamics are gaining relevance across scientific disciplines. Of biggest practical interest are methods that make no assumptions about…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-05 K. L. Mengersen , P. Pudlo , C. P. Robert

Computing tight over-approximation of reach sets of a controlled uncertain dynamical system is a common practice in verification of safety-critical cyber-physical systems (CPS). While several algorithms are available for this purpose, they…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-16 Shadi Haddad , Abhishek Halder

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-15 Hongqiao Wang , Jinglai Li

Local optimization presents a promising approach to expensive, high-dimensional black-box optimization by sidestepping the need to globally explore the search space. For objective functions whose gradient cannot be evaluated directly,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Quan Nguyen , Kaiwen Wu , Jacob R. Gardner , Roman Garnett

Rough path analysis is developed in the full Besov scale. This extends, and essentially concludes, an investigation started by [Pr\"omel--Trabs, Rough differential equations driven by signals in {B}esov spaces. J. Diff. Equ. 2016], further…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-14 Peter Friz , Benjamin Seeger

The challenge of approximating functions in infinite-dimensional spaces from finite samples is widely regarded as formidable. We delve into the challenging problem of the numerical approximation of Sobolev-smooth functions defined on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-11 Massimo Fornasier , Pascal Heid , Giacomo Enrico Sodini

One of the outstanding problems in the numerical discretization of the Feynman-Kac formula calls for the design of arbitrary-order short-time approximations that are constructed in a stable way, yet only require knowledge of the potential…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Cristian Predescu

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function.…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-17 Bai Jiang , Tung-yu Wu , Charles Zheng , Wing H. Wong

ABC (approximate Bayesian computation) is a general approach for dealing with models with an intractable likelihood. In this work, we derive ABC algorithms based on QMC (quasi- Monte Carlo) sequences. We show that the resulting ABC…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-08 Alexander Buchholz , Nicolas Chopin

In this paper we find a pathwise decomposition of a certain class of Brownian semistationary processes ($\mathcal{BSS}$) in terms of fractional Brownian motions. To do this, we specialize in the case when the kernel of the $\mathcal{BSS}$…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-17 Orimar Sauri

In this paper we show that the lengths of the approximating processes in epsilon substitution method are calculable by ordinal recursions in an optimal way.

Logic · Mathematics 2013-04-11 Toshiyasu Arai

In this article we study the Dyson Bessel process, which describes the evolution of singular values of rectangular matrix Brownian motions, and prove a large deviation principle for its empirical particle density. We then use it to obtain…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Alice Guionnet , Jiaoyang Huang

Random events in space and time often exhibit a locally dependent structure. When the events are very rare and dependent structure is not too complicated, various studies in the literature have shown that Poisson and compound Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-22 Aihua Xia , Fuxi Zhang

For a continuous function $f$ defined on a closed and bounded domain, there is at least one maximum and one minimum. First, we introduce some preliminaries which are necessary through the paper. We then present an algorithm, which is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-31 Fatih Idiz

We describe an approximate dynamic programming approach to compute lower bounds on the optimal value function for a discrete time, continuous space, infinite horizon setting. The approach iteratively constructs a family of lower bounding…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-20 Paul N. Beuchat , Joseph Warrington , John Lygeros

In this paper we propose a new deterministic approximation method, called discretization approximation, for Bayesian computation. Discretization approximation is very simple to understand and to implement, It only requires calculating…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shifeng Xiong

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-04 M. G. B. Blum , O. Francois
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