Related papers: A Bayesian realized threshold measurement GARCH fr…
We describe the development of a new toolkit for data analysis. The analysis package is based on Bayes' Theorem, and is realized with the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This gives access to the full posterior probability distribution.…
Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…
A Markov switching asymmetric GARCH model which imposes more leverage effect of the negative shocks is considered. The asymptotic behavior of the second moment is investigated and an upper bound for it is calculated. A bayesian strategy…
Price range contains important information about the asset volatility, and has long been considered an important indicator for it. In this paper, we propose to jointly model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and introduce an…
Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds,…
We propose a novel method to quantify the clustering behavior in a complex time series and apply it to a high-frequency data of the financial markets. We find that regardless of used data sets, all data exhibits the volatility clustering…
This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…
We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…
We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…
Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…
We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…
Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…
Predictive maintenance of railway infrastructure, especially railroads, is essential to ensure safety. However, accurate prediction of crack evolution represents a major challenge due to the complex interactions between intrinsic and…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
The critical slip distance in rate and state model for fault friction in the study of potential earthquakes can vary wildly from micrometers to few meters depending on the length scale of the critically stressed fault. This makes it…
It is now widely accepted that, to model the dynamics of daily financial returns, volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect. We derive the asymptotic behaviour of the squared residuals autocovariances for the class…
We consider geothermal inverse problems and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to make standard, `out-of-the-box' Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling more feasible for complex simulation models by…
We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via…
In this paper, we propose a novel Gaussian process-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) framework for unknown nonlinear systems. On the one hand, we approximate the system dynamics by the posterior means of the learned Gaussian processes…