Related papers: A mixed-frequency approach for exchange rates pred…
We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…
Understanding the stochastic behavior of currency exchange rates is critical for assessing financial stability and anticipating market transitions. In this study, we investigate the empirical dynamics of the USD exchange rate in three…
In inference problems involving a multi-dimensional parameter $\theta$, it is often natural to consider decision rules that have a risk which is invariant under some group $G$ of permutations of $\theta$. We show that this implies that the…
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a flexible framework that combines multiple specialized submodels (``experts''), by assigning covariate-dependent weights (``gating functions'') to each expert, and have been commonly used for analyzing…
Large and acute economic shocks such as the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the current COVID-19 infections rapidly change the economic environment. In such a situation, the importance of real-time economic analysis using alternative datais…
Analysis of multivariate healthcare time series data is inherently challenging: irregular sampling, noisy and missing values, and heterogeneous patient groups with different dynamics violating exchangeability. In addition, interpretability…
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…
Valuation and parity formulas for both European-style and American-style exchange options are presented in a general financial model allowing for jumps, possibility of default and "bubbles" in asset prices. The formulas are given via…
Macroeconomic data are crucial for monitoring countries' performance and driving policy. However, traditional data acquisition processes are slow, subject to delays, and performed at a low frequency. We address this 'ragged-edge' problem…
Improvement of time series forecasting accuracy through combining multiple models is an important as well as a dynamic area of research. As a result, various forecasts combination methods have been developed in literature. However, most of…
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX…
When climate forecasts are highly uncertain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to ignore them. When climate forecasts are highly certain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to use them as is. In between these two extremes…
A new efficient ensemble prediction strategy is developed for a general turbulent model framework with emphasis on the nonlinear interactions between large and small scale variables. The high computational cost in running large ensemble…
In modelling time series data coming from different sources, frequencies can easily vary since some variable can be measured at higher frequencies, others, at lower frequencies. Given data measured over spatial units and at varying…
Consider the problem of a central bank that wants to manage the exchange rate between its domestic currency and a foreign one. The central bank can purchase and sell the foreign currency, and each intervention on the exchange market leads…
This paper examines how shocks to currency volatilities predict exchange rates. Using option-implied volatilities, we construct a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections. Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks, which…
We analyze the recent Multi-index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method for computing statistics of the solution of a partial differential equation (PDEs) with random data, where the random coefficient is parametrized by means of a countable…
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies,…
Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is hindered by extreme volatility and a methodological dilemma between information-scarce univariate models and noise-prone full-multivariate models. This paper investigates a partial-multivariate approach…
This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia.…