Related papers: Normal Inverse Gaussian Autoregressive Model Using…
We develop a Bayesian median autoregressive (BayesMAR) model for time series forecasting. The proposed method utilizes time-varying quantile regression at the median, favorably inheriting the robustness of median regression in contrast to…
A new approach for signal parametrization, which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process, is proposed. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a…
This paper studies the problem of estimating the means $\pm\theta_{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$ of a symmetric two-component Gaussian mixture $\delta_{*}\cdot N(\theta_{*},I)+(1-\delta_{*})\cdot N(-\theta_{*},I)$ where the weights $\delta_{*}$ and…
We present new algorithms for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL, or inverse optimal control) in convex optimization settings. We argue that finite-space IRL can be posed as a convex quadratic program under a Bayesian inference framework…
The Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm is widely used to optimise non-convex likelihood functions with latent variables. Many authors modified its simple design to fit more specific situations. For instance, the Expectation (E) step…
Beta regression has been extensively used by statisticians and practitioners to model bounded continuous data and there is no strong and similar competitor having its main features. A class of normalized inverse-Gaussian (N-IG) process was…
We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly…
In this article, we propose a new three parameter distribution by compounding negative binomial with reciprocal inverse Gaussian model called negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution. This model is tractable with some…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a popular choice for learning latent variable models. Variants of the EM have been initially introduced, using incremental updates to scale to large datasets, and using Monte Carlo (MC)…
We study the gradient Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) in the over-parameterized setting, where a general GMM with $n>1$ components learns from data that are generated by a single ground truth…
Computing expected information gain (EIG) from prior to posterior (equivalently, mutual information between candidate observations and model parameters or other quantities of interest) is a fundamental challenge in Bayesian optimal…
Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…
We study the problem of estimating from data, a sparse approximation to the inverse covariance matrix. Estimating a sparsity constrained inverse covariance matrix is a key component in Gaussian graphical model learning, but one that is…
A single-index model (SIM) provides for parsimonious multi-dimensional nonlinear regression by combining parametric (linear) projection with univariate nonparametric (non-linear) regression models. We show that a particular Gaussian process…
The space time autoregressive model has been widely applied in science, in areas such as economics, public finance, political science, agricultural economics, environmental studies and transportation analyses. The classical space time…
The EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm is regarded as an MM (Majorization-Minimization) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of statistical models. Expanding this view, this paper demonstrates that by choosing an appropriate…
We take a new look at parameter estimation for Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). In particular, we propose using \emph{Riemannian manifold optimization} as a powerful counterpart to Expectation Maximization (EM). An out-of-the-box invocation…
Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…
Maneuvering target tracking is a challenging problem for sensor systems because of the unpredictability of the targets' motions. This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for learning the dynamical motion model of a target.…
Under the framework of dynamic conditional score, we propose a parametric forecasting model for Value-at-Risk based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (Hereinafter NIG-DCS-VaR), which creatively incorporates intraday information…