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An exponentially weighted moving model (EWMM) for a vector time series fits a new data model each time period, based on an exponentially fading loss function on past observed data. The well known and widely used exponentially weighted…
We study optimal design of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart by a proper choice of the smoothing factor and the initial value (headstart) of the decision statistic. The particular problem addressed is that of quickest…
The scaling of the optimal AdamW weight decay hyperparameter with model and dataset size is critical as we seek to build larger models, but is poorly understood. We show that weights learned by AdamW can be understood as an exponential…
We introduce a novel rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model featuring a variance-driven exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) time-dependent Hurst parameter $H_t$, fundamentally distinct from recent machine learning and wavelet-based…
The ability to predict the behavior of a wireless channel in terms of the frame delivery ratio is quite valuable, and permits, e.g., to optimize the operating parameters of a wireless network at runtime, or to proactively react to the…
This paper presents the exact mathematical derivation of the mean and variance properties for the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistic applied to binomial proportion monitoring in Multiple Stream Processes (MSPs). We…
Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention…
Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, MEWMA, charts are popular, handy and effective procedures to detect distributional changes in a stream of multivariate data. For doing appropriate performance analysis, dealing with the…
The exponential moving average (EMA) is a commonly used statistic for providing stable estimates of stochastic quantities in deep learning optimization. Recently, EMA has seen considerable use in generative models, where it is computed with…
We extend the Annually Recalculated Virtual Annuity (ARVA) spending rule for retirement savings decumulation to include a cap and a floor on withdrawals. With a minimum withdrawal constraint, the ARVA strategy runs the risk of depleting the…
This study introduces a novel approach to walk-forward optimization by parameterizing the lengths of training and testing windows. We demonstrate that the performance of a trading strategy using the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)…
Most statistical process control programmes in healthcare focus on surveillance of outcomes at the final stage of a procedure, such as mortality or failure rates. Such an approach ignores the multi-stage nature of these procedures, in which…
In many modern industrial scenarios, the measurements of the quality characteristics of interest are often required to be represented as functional data or profiles. This motivates the growing interest in extending traditional univariate…
Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization ($\mu$P) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern…
A scope in quality control, which has recently received a great deal of attention is profile that characterizes the quality of a product or process by a relationship between two or more variables. In this paper, we propose an EWMA chart for…
In this study, we constitute an adaptive hedging method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to extract the adaptive hedging horizon and build a time series cross-validation method for robust hedging performance estimation.…
Investigating the problem of setting control limits in the case of parameter uncertainty is more accessible when monitoring the variance because only one parameter has to be estimated. Simply ignoring the induced uncertainty frequently…
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence…
In this paper we derive the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility function under return predictability. It is assumed that the asset returns depend on predictable variables and that the joint…
The Exponentially Weighted Average (EWA) of observations is known to be state-of-art estimator for tracking expectations of dynamically varying data stream distributions. However, how to devise an EWA estimator to rather track quantiles of…