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The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

With the growing adoption of deep learning models in different real-world domains, including computational biology, it is often necessary to understand which data features are essential for the model's decision. Despite extensive recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Prashnna K Gyawali , Xiaoxia Liu , James Zou , Zihuai He

Negative binomial (NB) regression is a popular method for identifying differentially expressed genes in genomics data, such as bulk and single-cell RNA sequencing data. However, NB regression makes stringent parametric and asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Timothy Barry , Ziang Niu , Eugene Katsevich , Xihong Lin

Researchers often have datasets measuring features $x_{ij}$ of samples, such as test scores of students. In factor analysis and PCA, these features are thought to be influenced by unobserved factors, such as skills. Can we determine how…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Edgar Dobriban

Model interpretation is one of the key aspects of the model evaluation process. The explanation of the relationship between model variables and outputs is relatively easy for statistical models, such as linear regressions, thanks to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-12-05 Anna Palczewska , Jan Palczewski , Richard Marchese Robinson , Daniel Neagu

Vast literature on experimental design extends from Fisher and Snedecor to the modern day. When data lies beyond the assumption of univariate normality, nonparametric methods including rank based statistics and permutation tests are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-30 Adam B Kashlak , Sergii Myroshnychenko , Susanna Spektor

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

Mutation validation (MV) is a recently proposed approach for model selection, garnering significant interest due to its unique characteristics and potential benefits compared to the widely used cross-validation (CV) method. In this study,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Jinyang Yu , Sami Hamdan , Leonard Sasse , Abigail Morrison , Kaustubh R. Patil

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-02-11 Paul W. Vos

In qualitative statistics, permutation tests are very popular, mainly because of their finite-sample exactness under exchangeability. However, in non-exchangeable settings, the covariance structure of permuted statistics typically differs…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Merle Munko , Paavo Sattler

Communication is one of the key bottlenecks in the distributed training of large-scale machine learning models, and lossy compression of exchanged information, such as stochastic gradients or models, is one of the most effective instruments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Egor Shulgin , Peter Richtárik

We propose a general, modular method for significance testing of groups (or clusters) of variables in a high-dimensional linear model. In presence of high correlations among the covariables, due to serious problems of identifiability, it is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-12 Jacopo Mandozzi , Peter Bühlmann

This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-18 Stephane Hess , Andrew Daly , Michiel Bliemer , Angelo Guevara , Ricardo Daziano , Thijs Dekker

A common problem in numerous research areas, particularly in clinical trials, is to test whether the effect of an explanatory variable on an outcome variable is equivalent across different groups. In practice, these tests are frequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Niklas Hagemann , Kathrin Möllenhoff

This paper develops a scale-insensitive framework for neural network significance testing, substantially generalizing existing approaches through three key innovations. First, we replace metric entropy calculations with Rademacher…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Hasan Fallahgoul

In this article, we study the problem of variable screening in multiple nonparametric regression model. The proposed methodology is based on the fact that the partial derivative of the regression function with respect to the irrelevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Subhra Sankar Dhar , Prashant Jha , Aranyak Acharyya

Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended. These exposes highlight the need to identify when algorithms predict unintended quantities - ideally…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Amanda Coston

There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem arises because standard `point-form null' significance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Fintan Costello , Paul Watts

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Hongling Zhou , Kung-Yee Liang

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger