Related papers: Correlation Concern
Forward-looking correlations are of interest in different financial applications, including factor-based asset pricing, forecasting stock-price movements or pricing index options. With a focus on non-FX markets, this paper defines necessary…
Comparisons are made for the amount of agreement of the composite likelihood information criteria and their full likelihood counterparts when making decisions among the fits of different models, and some properties of penalty term for…
This paper provides a model to analyze and identify a decision maker's (DM's) hypothetical reasoning. Using this model, I show that a DM's propensity to engage in hypothetical thinking is captured exactly by her ability to recognize…
Model-based process design and operation involves here-and-now and wait-and-see decisions. Here-and-now decisions include design variables like the size of heat exchangers or the height of distillation columns, whereas wait-and-see…
Different agents need to make a prediction. They observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. We study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability -- as measured by…
Winners-take-all situations introduce an incentive for agents to diversify their behavior, since doing so will result in splitting an eventual price with fewer people. At the same time, when the payoff of a process depends on a parameter…
Three theories offer competing predictions about how people respond to growing diversity in their social environment. Contact theory suggests more exposure to out-groups reduces prejudice; conflict theory predicts a stronger in-group…
In the Stable Marriage Problem two sets of agents must be paired according to mutual preferences, which may happen to conflict. We present two generalizations of its sex-oriented version, aiming to take into account correlations between the…
Organisations, whether in government, industry or commerce, are required to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment. The way models are used is intimately connected to the way organisations make decisions and the context in…
We propose a control-theoretic interpretation of recommender systems and use this perspective to analyze how fairness interventions shape long-term system behavior. Fairness concerns arise for both users and creators, ranging from opinion…
In this paper I present several algorithmic techniques for improving the decision process of multiple types of agents behaving in environments where their interests are in conflict. The interactions between the agents are modelled by using…
This paper studies a decentralized many-to-one matching market where preferences remain uncertain during the matching process. Institutions initiate matching by sending offers, and applicants decide whether to accept upon receiving them.…
The machine learning community has recently devoted much attention to the problem of inferring causal relationships from statistical data. Most of this work has focused on uncovering connections among scalar random variables. We generalize…
Studies on interpersonal conflict have a long history and contain many suggestions for conflict typology. We use this as the basis of a novel annotation scheme and release a new dataset of situations and conflict aspect annotations. We then…
We investigate joint probabilistic choice rules describing the behavior of two decision makers, each facing potentially distinct menus. These rules are separable when they can be decomposed into individual choices correlated solely through…
This paper examines the problem of constructing belief networks to evaluate plans produced by an knowledge-based planner. Techniques are presented for handling various types of complicating plan features. These include plans with…
An agent acquires a costly flexible signal before making a decision. We explore to what degree knowledge of the agent's information costs helps predict her behavior. We establish an impossibility result: learning costs alone generate no…
Humans and other animals base their decisions on noisy sensory input. Much work has therefore been devoted to understanding the computations that underly such decisions. The problem has been studied in a variety of tasks and with stimuli of…
A researcher allocates a budget of informative tests across multiple unknown attributes to influence a decision-maker. We derive the researcher's equilibrium learning strategy by solving an auxiliary single-player problem. The attribute…
To what extent can agents with misspecified subjective models predict false correlations? We study an "analyst" who utilizes models that take the form of a recursive system of linear regression equations. The analyst fits each equation to…