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We study the decades-old problem of online portfolio management and propose the first algorithm with logarithmic regret that is not based on Cover's Universal Portfolio algorithm and admits much faster implementation. Specifically Universal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Haipeng Luo , Chen-Yu Wei , Kai Zheng

A classic problem in statistics is the estimation of the expectation of random variables from samples. This gives rise to the tightly connected problems of deriving concentration inequalities and confidence sequences, that is confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-02 Francesco Orabona , Kwang-Sung Jun

In the problem of online portfolio selection as formulated by Cover (1991), the trader repeatedly distributes her capital over $ d $ assets in each of $ T > 1 $ rounds, with the goal of maximizing the total return. Cover proposed an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Rémi Jézéquel , Dmitrii M. Ostrovskii , Pierre Gaillard

A universalization of a parameterized investment strategy is an online algorithm whose average daily performance approaches that of the strategy operating with the optimal parameters determined offline in hindsight. We present a general…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Karhan Akcoglu , Petros Drineas , Ming-Yang Kao

Online portfolio selection is a fundamental problem in computational finance, which has been extensively studied across several research communities, including finance, statistics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data mining,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-21 Bin Li , Steven C. H. Hoi

An abundance of recent impossibility results establish that regret minimization in Markov games with adversarial opponents is both statistically and computationally intractable. Nevertheless, none of these results preclude the possibility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Liad Erez , Tal Lancewicki , Uri Sherman , Tomer Koren , Yishay Mansour

We provide a simple and straightforward approach to a continuous-time version of Cover's universal portfolio strategies within the model-free context of F\"ollmer's pathwise It\^o calculus. We establish the existence of the universal…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-27 Xiyue Han , Alexander Schied

We consider online algorithms under both the competitive ratio criteria and the regret minimization one. Our main goal is to build a unified methodology that would be able to guarantee both criteria simultaneously. For a general class of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Amit Daniely , Yishay Mansour

This paper begins with a study on the dual representations of risk and regret measures and their impact on modeling multistage decision making under uncertainty. A relationship between risk envelopes and regret envelopes is established by…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-16 Jie Sun , Xinmin Yang , Qiang Yao , Min Zhang

We extend Relative Robust Portfolio Optimisation models to allow portfolios to optimise their distance to a set of benchmarks. Portfolio managers are also given the option of computing regret in a way which is more in line with market…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-01-12 Gonçalo Simões , Mark McDonald , Stacy Williams , Daniel Fenn , Raphael Hauser

A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-02-01 Yoram Singer

Regret minimization is a general approach to online optimization which plays a crucial role in many algorithms for approximating Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum games. The literature mainly focuses on solving individual games in…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-04-29 David Sychrovský , Martin Schmid , Michal Šustr , Michael Bowling

Portfolio optimization is a critical area in finance, aiming to maximize returns while minimizing risk. Metaheuristic algorithms were shown to solve complex optimization problems efficiently, with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-21 Hang Kin Poon

Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run $1-\alpha$ coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-04 Tuo Liu , Edgar Dobriban , Francesco Orabona

We propose a universal end-to-end framework for portfolio optimization where asset distributions are directly obtained. The designed framework circumvents the traditional forecasting step and avoids the estimation of the covariance matrix,…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-18 Chao Zhang , Zihao Zhang , Mihai Cucuringu , Stefan Zohren

We study the prediction with expert advice setting, where the aim is to produce a decision by combining the decisions generated by a set of experts, e.g., independently running algorithms. We achieve the min-max optimal dynamic regret under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Hakan Gokcesu , Suleyman S. Kozat

Considering mean-variance portfolio problems with uncertain model parameters, we contrast the classical absolute robust optimization approach with the relative robust approach based on a maximum regret function. Although the latter problems…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Raphael Hauser , Vijay Krishnamurthy , Reha Tütüncü

In this paper, we document a novel machine learning based bottom-up approach for static and dynamic portfolio optimization on, potentially, a large number of assets. The methodology applies to general constrained optimization problems and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-24 Qing Yang , Zhenning Hong , Ruyan Tian , Tingting Ye , Liangliang Zhang

We study the problem of online learning with a notion of regret defined with respect to a set of strategies. We develop tools for analyzing the minimax rates and for deriving regret-minimization algorithms in this scenario. While the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-13 Wei Han , Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Most bandit algorithm designs are purely theoretical. Therefore, they have strong regret guarantees, but also are often too conservative in practice. In this work, we pioneer the idea of algorithm design by minimizing the empirical Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-12 Chih-Wei Hsu , Branislav Kveton , Ofer Meshi , Martin Mladenov , Csaba Szepesvari
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