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This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Masahiro Kato

Causal reasoning is often challenging with spatial data, particularly when handling high-dimensional inputs. To address this, we propose a neural network (NN) based framework integrated with an approximate Gaussian process to manage spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Ziyang Jiang , Zach Calhoun , Yiling Liu , Lei Duan , David Carlson

We consider the problem of predicting perturbation effects via causal models. In many applications, it is a priori unknown which mechanisms of a system are modified by an external perturbation, even though the features of the perturbation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Nora Schneider , Lars Lorch , Niki Kilbertus , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

A data science task can be deemed as making sense of the data or testing a hypothesis about it. The conclusions inferred from data can greatly guide us to make informative decisions. Big data has enabled us to carry out countless prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Wenhao Zhang , Ramin Ramezani , Arash Naeim

This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, the general structure of Bayesian inference of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Fan Li , Peng Ding , Fabrizia Mealli

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

We systematically investigate issues due to mis-specification that arise in estimating causal effects when (treatment) interference is informed by a network available pre-intervention, i.e., in situations where the outcome of a unit may…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-22 Vishesh Karwa , Edoardo M. Airoldi

The intersection of causal inference and machine learning for decision-making is rapidly expanding, but the default decision criterion remains an \textit{average} of individual causal outcomes across a population. In practice, various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Wenshuo Guo , Michael I. Jordan , Angela Zhou

We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

Comparing future antibiotic resistance levels resulting from different antibiotic treatments is challenging because some patients may survive only under one of the antibiotic treatments. We embed this problem within a semi-competing risks…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Tamir Zehavi , Uri Obolski , Michal Chowers , Daniel Nevo

Methods for inferring average causal effects have traditionally relied on two key assumptions: (i) the intervention received by one unit cannot causally influence the outcome of another; and (ii) units can be organized into non-overlapping…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-23 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Isabel Fulcher , Ilya Shpitser

Recent work on dynamic interventions has greatly expanded the range of causal questions researchers can study while weakening identifying assumptions and yielding effects that are more practically relevant. However, most work in dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Jacqueline A Mauro , Edward H Kennedy , Daniel Nagin

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

Doubly robust estimators of causal effects are a popular means of estimating causal effects. Such estimators combine an estimate of the conditional mean of the outcome given treatment and confounders (the so-called outcome regression) with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-17 David Benkeser , Weixin Cai , Mark J van der Laan

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Sepehr Elahi , Sina Akbari , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Patrick Thiran

In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Jenna M. Landy , Dafne Zorzetto , Roberta De Vito , Giovanni Parmigiani

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Soham Bakshi , Walter Dempsey , Snigdha Panigrahi

Despite having achieved great success for sentiment analysis, existing neural models struggle with implicit sentiment analysis. This may be due to the fact that they may latch onto spurious correlations ("shortcuts", e.g., focusing only on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Siyin Wang , Jie Zhou , Changzhi Sun , Junjie Ye , Tao Gui , Qi Zhang , Xuanjing Huang

Interference occurs when a unit's treatment (or exposure) affects another unit's outcome. In some settings, units may be grouped into clusters such that it is reasonable to assume that interference, if present, only occurs between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Chanhwa Lee , Donglin Zeng , Michael G. Hudgens