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McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-21 Ning Ning , Amin Wu

We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-20 Ruth King , Roland Langrock

Complex systems are often characterized by the interplay of multiple interconnected dynamical processes operating across a range of temporal scales. This phenomenon is widespread in both biological and artificial scenarios, making it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-08 Giorgio Nicoletti , Daniel M. Busiello

The principle of maximum entropy is a broadly applicable technique for computing a distribution with the least amount of information possible while constrained to match empirically estimated feature expectations. However, in many real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Kenneth Bogert , Yikang Gui , Prashant Doshi

Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Hao Ge , Steve Presse , Kingshuk Ghosh , Ken Dill

Recent works in Learning-Based Model Predictive Control of dynamical systems show impressive sample complexity performances using criteria from Information Theory to accelerate the learning procedure. However, the sequential exploration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Rémy Hosseinkhan-Boucher , Onofrio Semeraro , Lionel Mathelin

A goal of data assimilation is to infer stochastic dynamical behaviors with available observations. We consider transition phenomena between metastable states for a stochastic system with (non-Gaussian) $\alpha-$stable L\'evy noise. With…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xingye Kan

We present a maximum entropy approach to analyze the internal dynamics of a small system in contact with a large bath e.g. a solute-solvent system. For the small solute, the fluctuations around the mean values of observables are not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Purushottam D. Dixit

We study the optimal control of discrete time mean filed dynamical systems under partial observations. We express the global law of the filtered process as a controlled system with its own dynamics. Following a dynamic programming approach,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-13 Jeremy Chichportich , Idris Kharroubi

Estimating physical properties of quantum states from measurements is one of the most fundamental tasks in quantum science. In this work, we identify conditions on states under which it is possible to infer the expectation values of all…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-05-01 Cambyse Rouzé , Daniel Stilck França

We study an approximation method for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous spaces. Belief MDP reduction, which has been the standard approach to study POMDPs requires rigorous approximation methods for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-20 Ali Devran Kara , Erhan Bayraktar , Serdar Yuksel

The field of complex networks studies a wide variety of interacting systems by representing them as networks. To understand their properties and mutual relations, the randomisation of network connections is a commonly used tool. However,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-10-18 Noam Abadi , Franco Ruzzenenti

We study time-optimal state-to-state control for two- and multi-qubit operations motivated by neutral-atom quantum processors within the Rydberg blockade regime. Block-diagonalization of the Hamiltonian simplifies the dynamics and enables…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-05-18 Federico Alberto Astolfi , Sven Jandura , Guido Pupillo

Semi-Markov processes play an important role in the effective description of partially accessible systems in stochastic thermodynamics. They occur, for instance, in coarse-graining procedures such as state lumping and when analyzing waiting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-19 Alexander M. Maier , Jonas H. Fritz , Udo Seifert

Estimating entropy production from real observation data can be difficult due to finite resolution in both space and time and finite measurement statistics. We characterize the statistical error introduced by finite sample size and compare…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-09 Jonas H. Fritz , Benjamin Ertel , Udo Seifert

For a Markovian dynamics on discrete states, the logarithmic ratio of waiting-time distributions between two successive, instantaneous transitions in forward and backward direction is a measure of time-irreversibility. It thus serves as an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-06-13 Ellen Meyberg , Julius Degünther , Udo Seifert

To model recurrent interaction events in continuous time, an extension of the stochastic block model is proposed where every individual belongs to a latent group and interactions between two individuals follow a conditional inhomogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-30 Catherine Matias , Tabea Rebafka , Fanny Villers

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

The problem of estimating entropy production from incomplete information in stochastic thermodynamics is essential for theory and experiments. Whereas a considerable amount of work has been done on this topic, arguably, most of it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-17 Pedro E. Harunari , Carlos E. Fiore , Andre C. Barato

When an expert operates a perilous dynamic system, ideal constraint information is tacitly contained in their demonstrated trajectories and controls. The likelihood of these demonstrations can be computed, given the system dynamics and task…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-26 David L. McPherson , Kaylene C. Stocking , S. Shankar Sastry