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We introduce a method for quantifying the inherent unpredictability of a continuous-valued time series via an extension of the differential Shannon entropy rate. Our extension, the specific entropy rate, quantifies the amount of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-09 David Darmon

Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-09-13 S. E. Marzen , J. P. Crutchfield

The information detection of complex systems from data is currently undergoing a revolution, driven by the emergence of big data and machine learning methodology. Discovering governing equations and quantifying dynamical properties of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-12-10 Min Dai , Jinqiao Duan , Jianyu Hu , Xiangjun Wang

A quantity of interest to characterise continuous-valued stochastic processes is the differential entropy rate. The rate of convergence of many properties of LRD processes is slower than might be expected, based on the intuition for…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Andrew Feutrill , Matthew Roughan

Entropy rate of sequential data-streams naturally quantifies the complexity of the generative process. Thus entropy rate fluctuations could be used as a tool to recognize dynamical perturbations in signal sources, and could potentially be…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-24 Ishanu Chattopadhyay , Hod Lipson

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-11 S. E. Marzen , J. P. Crutchfield

The rate of entropy production provides a useful quantitative measure of a non-equilibrium system and estimating it directly from time-series data from experiments is highly desirable. Several approaches have been considered for stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-21 Shun Otsubo , Sreekanth K Manikandan , Takahiro Sagawa , Supriya Krishnamurthy

We extend the notion of estimation entropy of autonomous dynamical systems proposed by Liberzon and Mitra [1] to nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertain inputs with bounded variation. We call this new notion the {$\epsilon$}-estimation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-14 Hussein Sibai , Sayan Mitra

Hidden Markov chains are widely applied statistical models of stochastic processes, from fundamental physics and chemistry to finance, health, and artificial intelligence. The hidden Markov processes they generate are notoriously…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-05-26 Alexandra M. Jurgens , James P. Crutchfield

We propose a new sensitivity analysis methodology for complex stochastic dynamics based on the Relative Entropy Rate. The method becomes computationally feasible at the stationary regime of the process and involves the calculation of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2013-04-16 Yannis Pantazis , Markos A. Katsoulakis

We describe how to analyze the wide class of non stationary processes with stationary centered increments using Shannon information theory. To do so, we use a practical viewpoint and define ersatz quantities from time-averaged probability…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Carlos Granero-Belinchon , Stéphane G. Roux , Nicolas Garnier

Estimating the entropy of a discrete random variable is a fundamental problem in information theory and related fields. This problem has many applications in various domains, including machine learning, statistics and data compression. Over…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Yuval Shalev , Amichai Painsky , Irad Ben-Gal

In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rohan Hore , Abhik Ghosh

Maximum entropy estimation is of broad interest for inferring properties of systems across many different disciplines. In this work, we significantly extend a technique we previously introduced for estimating the maximum entropy of a set of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-01-05 Elliot A. Martin , Jaroslav Hlinka , Alexander Meinke , Filip Děchtěrenko , Jörn Davidsen

Entropy estimation, due in part to its connection with mutual information, has seen considerable use in the study of time series data including causality detection and information flow. In many cases, the entropy is estimated using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-06 Alexander L Young , David B Dunson

Reliable data-driven estimation of Shannon entropy from small data sets, where the number of examples is potentially smaller than the number of possible outcomes, is a critical matter in several applications. In this paper, we introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Gabriel F. A. Bastos , Jugurta Montalvão

Sequential recommender systems have achieved steady gains in offline accuracy, yet it remains unclear how close current models are to the intrinsic accuracy limit imposed by the data. A reliable, model-agnostic estimate of this ceiling…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-04-15 En Xu , Jingtao Ding , Yong Li

Stochastic thermodynamics extends classical thermodynamics to small systems in contact with one or more heat baths. It can account for the effects of thermal fluctuations and describe systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. A basic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-04 Momčilo Gavrilov , Raphaël Chétrite , John Bechhoefer

A plug-in estimator of entropy is the entropy of the distribution where probabilities of symbols or blocks have been replaced with their relative frequencies in the sample. Consistency and asymptotic unbiasedness of the plug-in estimator…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-03-11 Łukasz Dębowski

This work contains two single-letter upper bounds on the entropy rate of a discrete-valued stationary stochastic process, which only depend on second-order statistics, and are primarily suitable for models which consist of relatively large…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-11 Ran Tamir
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