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The broad sense genetic heritability, which quantifies the total proportion of phenotypic variation in a population due to genetic factors, is crucial for understanding trait inheritance. While many existing methods focus on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Olivia Bley , Elizabeth Lei , Andy Zhou , Xiaoxi Shen

We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to vector-valued outputs from probability measures. Many important machine learning and statistical tasks fit into this framework, including multi-instance learning and point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-24 Zoltan Szabo , Bharath Sriperumbudur , Barnabas Poczos , Arthur Gretton

Over-parameterized models like deep nets and random forests have become very popular in machine learning. However, the natural goals of continuity and differentiability, common in regression models, are now often ignored in modern…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Mingxuan Han , Varun Shankar , Jeff M Phillips , Chenglong Ye

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

The divide and conquer method is a common strategy for handling massive data. In this article, we study the divide and conquer method for cubic-rate estimators under the massive data framework. We develop a general theory for establishing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-06 Chengchun Shi , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Random feature (RF) has been widely used for node consistency in decentralized kernel ridge regression (KRR). Currently, the consistency is guaranteed by imposing constraints on coefficients of features, necessitating that the random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Ruikai Yang , Fan He , Mingzhen He , Jie Yang , Xiaolin Huang

We develop and analyze a principled approach to kernel ridge regression under covariate shift. The goal is to learn a regression function with small mean squared error over a target distribution, based on unlabeled data from there and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Kaizheng Wang

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in various applications, they often fall short in accurately estimating their predictive uncertainty and, in turn, fail to recognize when these predictions may be wrong.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Generative models, like large language models, are becoming increasingly relevant in our daily lives, yet a theoretical framework to assess their generalization behavior and uncertainty does not exist. Particularly, the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Siu Lun Chau , Jean-François Ton , Javier González , Yee Whye Teh , Dino Sejdinovic

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

Dyadic data is often encountered when quantities of interest are associated with the edges of a network. As such it plays an important role in statistics, econometrics and many other data science disciplines. We consider the problem of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , William G. Underwood

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Christoph Lehmann , Yahor Paromau

In this paper, we consider the uncertainty quantification problem for regression models. Specifically, we consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model. While such an objective is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Shang Liu , Zhongze Cai , Xiaocheng Li