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can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-20 Xiu-Xiu Zhan , Chuang Liu , Gui-Quan Sun , Zi-Ke Zhang

We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zihan Xu

The emergence of online social platforms, such as social networks and social media, has drastically affected the way people apprehend the information flows to which they are exposed. In such platforms, various information cascades spreading…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Gaspard Abel , Argyris Kalogeratos , Jean-Pierre Nadal , Julien Randon-Furling

The dynamics of diffusion in complex networks are widely studied to understand how entities, such as information, diseases, or behaviors, spread in an interconnected environment. Complex networks often present community structure, and tools…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-09 Alina Dubovskaya , Caroline B. Pena , David J. P. O'Sullivan

Diverse human motion prediction (HMP) aims to predict multiple plausible future motions given an observed human motion sequence. It is a challenging task due to the diversity of potential human motions while ensuring an accurate description…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Hua Yu , Yaqing Hou , Wenbin Pei , Qiang Zhang

The focus of this work is on developing probabilistic models for user activity in social networks by incorporating the social network influence as perceived by the user. For this, we propose a coupled Hidden Markov Model, where each user's…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-05-10 Vasanthan Raghavan , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Efforts to model viral cascades provide a vital view into how they form and spread. A range of methods, such as Multivariate Hawkes Processes or network inference algorithms, attempt to decompose cascades into constituent components via…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Nick Hagar , Laila Wahedi , Eric Dunford

Modeling the popularity dynamics of an online item is an important open problem in computational social science. This paper presents an in-depth study of popularity dynamics under external promotions, especially in predicting popularity…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-03-23 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Lexing Xie

Diffusion processes are instrumental to describe the movement of a continuous quantity in a generic network of interacting agents. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for diffusion in networks and propose to classify agent…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-08-28 Wai Hong Ronald Chan , Matthias Wildemeersch , Tony Q. S. Quek

We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak

The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Yan Shen , Fan Yang , Mingchen Gao , Wen Dong

Human trajectory data is crucial in urban planning, traffic engineering, and public health. However, directly using real-world trajectory data often faces challenges such as privacy concerns, data acquisition costs, and data quality. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Qingyue Long , Can Rong , Tong Li , Yong Li

Temporal higher-order networks, where each hyperlink involving a group of nodes are activated or deactivated over time, are recently used to represent complex systems such as social contacts, interactions or collaborations that occur at…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-18 Shilun Zhang , Alberto Ceria , Huijuan Wang

Continuous-time long-term event prediction plays an important role in many application scenarios. Most existing works rely on autoregressive frameworks to predict event sequences, which suffer from error accumulation, thus compromising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Wang-Tao Zhou , Zhao Kang , Ling Tian

The evolution of communities in dynamic (time-varying) network data is a prominent topic of interest. A popular approach to understanding these dynamic networks is to embed the dyadic relations into a latent metric space. While methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Joshua Daniel Loyal , Yuguo Chen

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Feng Zhou , Yixuan Zhang , Jun Zhu

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Salva Rühling Cachay , Bo Zhao , Hailey Joren , Rose Yu

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Farnood Salehi , William Trouleau , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

Learning the latent network structure from large scale multivariate point process data is an important task in a wide range of scientific and business applications. For instance, we might wish to estimate the neuronal functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-21 Biao Cai , Jingfei Zhang , Yongtao Guan