Related papers: Poisson Modeling and Predicting English Premier Le…
A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…
Estimation of football players' skills is one of the key tasks in sports analytics. This paper introduces multiple extensions to a widely used model, expected possession value (EPV), to address some key challenges such as selection problem.…
In the uniformity testing task, an algorithm is provided with samples from an unknown probability distribution over a (known) finite domain, and must decide whether it is the uniform distribution, or, alternatively, if its total variation…
Here we consider the download statistics of EPL publications. We find that papers in the journal are characterised by fast accumulations of downloads during the first couple of months after publication, followed by slower rates thereafter,…
Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…
Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…
In this work author applies well known web search algorithm Hyperlink - Induced Topic Search (HITS) to problem of ranking football teams in English Premier League (EPL). The algorithm allows the ranking of the teams using the notions of…
Governing authorities in sports often make changes to rules and regulations to increase competitiveness. One such change was made by the English Football Association in 1981 when it changed the rule for awarding points in the domestic…
Probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. We propose a new model that…
We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical…
We use European football performance data to select teams to form the proposed European football Super League, using only unsupervised techniques. We first used random forest regression to select important variables predicting goal…
Given a monocular video of a soccer match, this paper presents a computational model to estimate the most feasible pass at any given time. The method leverages offensive player's orientation (plus their location) and opponents' spatial…
Although basketball is a dynamic process sport, with 5 plus 5 players competing on both offense and defense simultaneously, learning some static information is predominant for professional players, coaches and team mangers. In order to have…
This paper introduces an innovative application of Large Event Models (LEMs), akin to Large Language Models, to the domain of soccer analytics. By learning the language of soccer - predicting variables for subsequent events rather than…
We present a new approach for identifying situations and behaviours, which we call "moves", from soccer games in the 2D simulation league. Being able to identify key situations and behaviours are useful capabilities for analysing soccer…
One of the key problems in the field of soccer analytics is predicting how a player performance changes when transitioning from one league to another. One potential solution to address this issue lies in the evaluation of the respective…
The objective of this work was to help the soccer field managers to evaluate the performance of a goalkeeper in saving the penalty kicks. To this end, based on the concept of clustering, four measures were proposed for evaluating the…
Evaluating the individual movements for teammates in soccer players is crucial for assessing teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement. It has been said that players in a 90-min game do not have the ball for about 87 minutes on average.…
This paper introduces an approach to predicting the next event in a soccer match, a challenge bearing remarkable similarities to the problem faced by Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike other methods that severely limit event dynamics in…
We analyze the time series of soccer matches in a model-free way using data for the German soccer league (Bundesliga). We argue that the goal difference is a better measure for the overall fitness of a team than the number of points. It is…