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In recent years, there has been significant progress in the development of fully data-driven global numerical weather prediction models. These machine learning weather prediction models have their strength, notably accuracy and low…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Alban Farchi , Marcin Chrust , Marc Bocquet , Massimo Bonavita

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Wanghan Xu , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Numerical weather forecasting using high-resolution physical models often requires extensive computational resources on supercomputers, which diminishes their wide usage in most real-life applications. As a remedy, applying deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Selim Furkan Tekin , Arda Fazla , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Xiuyu Sun , Xiaohui Zhong , Xiaoze Xu , Yuanqing Huang , Hao Li , J. David Neelin , Deliang Chen , Jie Feng , Wei Han , Libo Wu , Yuan Qi

We develop multiple Deep Learning (DL) models that advance the state-of-the-art predictions of the global auroral particle precipitation. We use observations from low Earth orbiting spacecraft of the electron energy flux to develop a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Jack Ziegler , Ryan M. Mcgranaghan

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-24 Philipp Hess , Niklas Boers

Data assimilation is the process to fuse information from priors, observations of nature, and numerical models, in order to obtain best estimates of the parameters or state of a physical system of interest. Presence of large errors in some…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-11-06 Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu , Michael Ng , Elias Nino-Ruiz

The paper presents experiments of driving a physics-based thermosphere model by assimilating electron density (Ne) and temperature (Tn) data using the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) technique. This study not only helps to gauge…

Space Physics · Physics 2019-03-22 Timothy Kodikara , Kefei Zhang

The increasing use of synthetic data from the public Internet has enhanced data usage efficiency in large language model (LLM) training. However, the potential threat of model collapse remains insufficiently explored. Existing studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Tianyu Wang , Akira Horiguchi , Lingyou Pang , Carey E. Priebe

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven…

This work introduces a new class of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) methods grounded in data-consistent inversion (DCI) theory. The methods extend classical 4D-Var by incorporating a predictability-aware…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Rylan Spence , Troy Butler , Clint Dawson

Coupled data assimilation (CDA) distinctively appears as a main concern in numerical weather and climate prediction with major efforts put forward worldwide. The core issue is the scale separation acting as a barrier that hampers the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-22 Maxime Tondeur , Alberto Carrassi , Stephane Vannitsem , Marc Bocquet

In this paper, we introduce a new, local formulation of the ensemble Kalman Filter approach for atmospheric data assimilation. Our scheme is based on the hypothesis that, when the Earth's surface is divided up into local regions of moderate…

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

IIn recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying data assimilation (DA) methods, originally designed for state estimation, to the model selection problem. In this setting, Carrassi et al. (2017) introduced the contextual…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-10 Sammy Metref , Alexis Hannart , Juan Ruiz , Marc Bocquet , Alberto Carrassi , Michael Ghil

The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…

The widespread adoption of mobile and wearable sensing technologies has enabled continuous and personalized monitoring of affect, mood disorders, and stress. When combined with ecological self-report questionnaires, these systems offer a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Louis Simon , Mohamed Chetouani

The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-12 Hristo G. Chipilski

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea…

Weather radar echoes, correlated in both space and time, are the most important input data for short-term precipitation forecast. Motivated by real datasets, this paper is concerned with the spatio-temporal modeling of two-dimensional radar…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-03 Xiao Liu , Viknesswaran Gopal , Jayant Kalagnanam